“Population Exchange”: Right-Wing Theory Goes Mainstream

The Buffalo shooter killed ten people, allegedly for racist motives. He also refers to the fight against the “Great Exchange”, a racist conspiracy theory. What’s behind it?

Charleston 2015. Pittsburgh 2018. El Paso 2019. Three places, three assassination attempts. In Charleston, a gunman killed nine black people at their church. Eleven Jewish people died in a synagogue in Pittsburgh and 23 people died in a department store in El Paso, many of them Latinos.

And now ten more dead, many of them black, in Buffalo. This is a community’s worst nightmare, the mayor said.

Male, white, extreme right

All shooters were white males, mostly young. They committed their crimes alone, but they share a common right-wing extremist world view. This includes the theory of the great “population exchange”.

“The idea is that there is a vicious group of elites out to wipe out the white race through a range of social programs, from immigration to abortion to gay rights,” says Kathleen Belew, a historian at the University of Chicago NPR.

Prime-time conspiracy myths

In Germany, this conspiracy theory is represented by parts of the AfD, in the USA it is almost common knowledge. One in three adults in the US believes in it, according to a recent survey. One reason for this: She can be heard regularly on the most popular talk show in the USA: on Tucker Carlson during prime time on Fox News. The “Great Exchange” is what is happening, it’s true, Carlson claims.

In his opinion, it is also true that the Democratic Party is trying to replace the current electorate with more docile voters from the third world – who then, of course, voted for the Democrats. According to the New York Times, he has promoted this theory in more than 400 episodes of his show.

Rooted in Republicans

It is now firmly anchored in parts of the Republican Party. Elise Stefanik, after all number three among the Republicans, speaks in advertisements and posts of an election overthrow of the Democrats. Eleven million illegal immigrants, she claims, should secure a permanent liberal majority in Washington.

And JD Vance, author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” uses it to campaign for the Senate: Joe Biden’s open border is killing people in Ohio, he claims, with more illegal drugs and more Democratic voters pouring into the country.

counter-strategy sought

This is almost never heard from moderate Republicans. Wyoming’s Liz Cheney, an outsider for her criticism of Trump, asked her party to dismiss the conspiracy theory. History has taught that what begins with words can end much worse.

It becomes more difficult to get rid of the myths and fairy tales. Historian Kathleen Belew calls for a far-reaching strategy: “We need to talk about our history more seriously and sustainably. We need political education and a response at the local level.”