Opinion poll
How would a Wagenknecht party fare?
Sahra Wagenknecht, parliamentary group leader of Die Linke in the Bundestag, recorded during a dpa interview. photo
© Sina Schuldt/dpa
Could a “Wagenknecht List” shake up the party system – or could it? For opinion research institutes, the answer is even more difficult than with regular surveys.
When asked what proportion of voters a possibly of Sahra Wagenknecht would come, polls give different answers. A fundamental methodological problem is that the party – and also its personnel and program – does not yet exist and therefore no real possibility of comparison. The left-wing politician has so far left the founding of a party open.
In a survey by Civey for the newspapers of the Funke media group, 20 percent of those questioned could “basically imagine” voting for such a party led by Wagenknecht. Especially supporters of the AfD (44 percent) and the left (41 percent) would therefore feel addressed.
Unlike the “Sunday Question”
The question is different from the classic “Sunday question”, which is about who you would vote for if an election date is next Sunday. So far, there has been difficult to compare and very different information: In Thuringia, according to an Insa survey commissioned by three newspapers in mid-July, 25 percent would vote for such a “Wagenknecht list” in a state election – it would be the strongest force. This would primarily be to the detriment of the AfD, which is currently in the lead in the regular polls in the federal state: It would be ten percentage points less and would end up in second place with 22 percent.
In another current survey by YouGov for the “world” with a view to a federal election, only two percent would vote for the Wagenknecht party – these are values that differ considerably despite the different starting situations in the federal government and in the state of Thuringia. Election polls are generally subject to uncertainties and are not forecasts for the outcome of the election.
Of those interviewed at Civey who could imagine voting for a possible new party, 65 percent gave the reason that the currently eligible parties – including the AfD – do not convince them. Even more, namely 68 percent, cited dissatisfaction with current politics as the reason, and 73 percent stated that they could imagine voting for a party founded by Wagenknecht because of Wagenknecht’s views. The 54-year-old had fallen out with the left-wing party leadership around chairmen Janine Wissler and Martin Schirdewan. Among other things, Wagenknecht takes different positions on the issues of migration policy and the Ukraine war.