Poland: “We see government agony”

Prime Minister Morawiecki throws deputy Gowin out shortly before a delicate vote: What does the break in Warsaw’s government alliance mean? The Poland expert Bachmann sees the country’s government at the end.

tagesschau.de: What does Jaroslaw Gowin’s expulsion from the government and his party’s break with the PiS mean?

Klaus Bachmann: It means that the government – again – no longer has a parliamentary majority. Since the last parliamentary election, the PiS has been dependent on two smaller parties, each of which can take away the government’s majority in the Sejm. However, according to the current polls, neither party would have a chance to return to parliament. You remain dependent on the PiS. They are only represented in parliament at all because the PiS added a certain number of its candidates to its list in the last election and refrained from nominating its own candidates in the constituencies. At the time, the PiS did not foresee that these parties would get so many mandates – it simply miscalculated.

Two issues

tagesschau.de: Why does this break come at this point in time?

Bachmann: The PiS has pushed forward several controversial projects and now wants to get them through parliament in one fell swoop. This is a tax reform that is related to the EU money from the Corona aid fund. The government needs this money in order to serve its clientele and thus secure the next election victory. Gowin’s economically liberal party does not want to support this tax reform.

tagesschau.de: And then there is also a new broadcasting law.

Bachmann: That is the second conflict. In order to win the upcoming elections, the PiS wants to take over the largest independent TV station, the majority of which is operated by an American consortium, or withdraw its license. The law would mean that the majority in the station would have to be sold and then be taken over by the companies related to the PiS.

Method reaches its limits

tagesschau.de: In view of the dependence of the smaller parties on the PiS, is it conceivable that some MPs from the smaller parties will defer to it?

Bachmann: It is also not the first time that the PiS has lost a majority in parliament. That was already the case at the end of June, when several MPs left the PiS because they expected that there would be new elections and that they would then lose their mandate. One of these MPs could be bought back, so that the government still had a majority of one vote. Now 13 MPs are gone, some of whom are to be brought back. But even then, the PiS would have to make concessions to other parliamentary groups that do not belong to the government – that is all very shaky. And in the PiS itself, there is also great dissatisfaction at the grassroots level. There is resentment there that the PiS repeatedly lures opposition politicians over with lucrative offers such as government posts or jobs in state-owned companies, but that the rank and file do everything voluntarily without being rewarded in any way. You can see that at some point, shopping for voices will reach its limits.

tagesschau.de: Does this also mean that every new majority remains fragile?

Bachmann: Yes, because every new law goes to the House of Lords, the Senate, after the vote, then comes again to Parliament and then has to be signed by the President – or it goes to the Constitutional Court. And the president in particular is under considerable pressure from the USA with regard to the broadcasting law, because the planned expropriation of American investors is a big issue there. Especially since there are still several conflict issues between the USA and Poland.

tagesschau.de: Is it just the relationship between the PiS and Gowin’s party that is shaky?

Bachmann: No, there are also conflicts with the second partner, the “Solidarisches Poland” party of Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, who is responsible for the judicial reform, from which the PiS is now gradually withdrawing under pressure from the EU. With a view to new elections, Ziobro is courting the right-wing extremist voter potential, which is also represented in parliament by other parties or MPs. He needs them, otherwise he won’t be able to go to parliament. As a result, the Justice Minister speaks of Poland’s exit from the EU, while the PiS needs a budget and funds from the EU for the election, which it can distribute to its clientele. The next conflict is already predetermined.

Strategy with weak points

tagesschau.de: What you are describing sounds like an outright paralysis in domestic politics.

Bachmann: That is also the case. We see government agony and the only question is when the patient is dead. However, the PiS cannot bring about new elections on its own because it needs many votes from the opposition for parliament to dissolve itself. But it is possible that the opposition will let the government fidget again for the time being. The calculation could therefore be that the government will not be able to present a state budget in the autumn, although this is required by the constitution at that time. Then the president can dissolve parliament. The disadvantage of this strategy is that the PiS, which likes to pretend to be so powerful, is then quite weak. That is why the PiS would like to switch off the independent media because it will then be able to sell its course better.

tagesschau.de: The coalition is broken, but many MPs cannot be interested in a new election. How does that dissolve?

Bachmann: This cannot be resolved because it is also a self-fulfilling prophecy. MEPs believe that there will be new elections in which they will lose their posts. The government is bursting because everyone expects it to burst. That’s why the PiS wanted the EU money to buy more votes. That should lead to a tax reform based on the motto: Whoever does not choose PiS pays higher taxes, and whoever chooses PiS gets it. It did not consider that it also needs the votes of those who will have to pay higher taxes after the tax reform. According to the constitution, PiS could continue to rule with a minority government for years. But their own people believe there will be new elections soon. None of this is rational, but neither is it new. Such agonies of governments that stand in their own way have existed before.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de