Turkey has a lot of experience with terror, which became apparent again at the beginning of this week. Yes, the attack that hit the capital Ankara on Sunday morning will dominate the Turkish headlines on Monday. But there is little shock, little horror. Judging by what happened.
Two assassins, it is still unclear whether they were women or men, made it to the heavily secured center of Ankara, on Ataturk Boulevard between the Interior Ministry and Parliament. And that on the day when the MPs met again for the first time after the summer break. President Erdoğan gave a speech in the plenary session.
Retaliation follows on Sunday evening
The attackers are said to have stolen a veterinarian’s car in Kayseri, southeast of Ankara, on Saturday. According to Turkish information, they shot the man. They then drove to the capital, where one of them blew himself up in front of the Interior Ministry while the other started shooting. Before he could detonate the bomb on his body, he died from bullets from the Turkish police. Two police officers were injured.
Unlike the last major attack in Turkey, in December, when several people died on Istanbul’s İstiklal shopping street, this time there is a letter of responsibility. In the language of the Kurdish PKK militia, the attack was an “action of sacrifice,” according to the PKK-affiliated news agency ANF. It sounds perfidious to say that the two from the “Brigade of the Immortals” could have killed people if they had wanted to. But they were only concerned with a “signal”. They were willing to die for this.
What was the attack intended to signal? Presumably, Turkey is still vulnerable, even if there have been fewer terrorist attacks in the country recently. The PKK probably wants to show that the ceasefire it announced after the earthquakes in February no longer applies. The Turkish Air Force has recently been carrying out intensive attacks on Kurdish targets in northern Syria and northern Iraq, especially with its drones. Civilians often died.
Retaliation for the attack followed on Sunday evening, as usual from the air. The air force has “neutralized” 20 targets, according to the Turkish Defense Ministry in Ankara. So far there has been no talk of a major military operation in the Kurdish areas. Erdoğan is likely to use the attack at least rhetorically when it comes to Sweden joining NATO again soon.
Turkey is still blocking it, although parliament has ratification on its agenda. In recent days, Erdoğan has again pointed to the PKK demonstrations on Swedish streets; just over the weekend, demonstrators burned a doll of the president in Stockholm – which the Turkish Foreign Ministry immediately condemned. In his speech in parliament a few hours after the attack, Erdoğan spoke of the “final throes of terror.”
Another election campaign with nationalist tones awaits Turkey
He still reserves the right to continue blocking Swedish accession, even if he officially refers to Parliament. It is not yet clear when exactly the MPs will vote on the Sweden question. Before that, Erdoğan expects the USA to supply Turkey with the F-16 fighter jets it wants – and he is demanding further concessions from Stockholm regarding the PKK presence there. Especially after the attack on Sunday.
Domestically, the Turkish government will continue to take tough action against the Kurds. The first Kurdish activists were arrested on Monday night. Erdoğan’s AKP governs together with the right-wing extremist MHP. The parties are also likely to nominate joint candidates in the local elections next spring when Istanbul City Hall is at stake. Erdoğan absolutely wants to win back Istanbul, where opposition politician Ekrem İmamoğlu has ruled since 2019.
Another election campaign with nationalistic tones awaits Turkey. Despite the ongoing economic crisis, Erdoğan has good chances if the Kurds isolate themselves from the rest of the opposition. Attacks like the one on Sunday in Ankara are likely to help the president.