What was unthinkable weeks ago has been experienced by more and more drivers at German gas stations in the past few days. There is actually a one in front of the decimal point, a liter of Super costs less than two euros in many places. One remembers: That was the magic limit at which Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) wanted to pull in the so-called fuel brake. Instead, a tank discount of 14 cents per liter of diesel and 30 cents for petrol was decided. But although this does not yet apply, prices at gas stations have recently fallen significantly again.
That seems illogical at first, since the war in Ukraine is always cited as the reason for the high prices – it’s still going on, and calls for an energy embargo are getting louder and louder. There are, however, possible explanations: calculations by the Hamburg energy expert Steffen Bukold on behalf of the environmental organization Greenpeace show, for example, that the mineral oil companies in particular have made good money from the high fuel prices. Therefore, there are great doubts as to whether the tank discount would reach consumers or rather companies.
The study compares the development of the crude oil price with the refinery costs and what the driver pays at the end of the day at the gas station. It turned out that crude oil of the North Sea reference variety Brent had risen by an average of 19.4 cents per liter by March 22, while the refinery price for a liter of diesel had risen by more than 30 cents over the same period. At the pump, the customer then paid an average of 6.5 cents more – before taxes, mind you. According to the author of the study, this is a clear indication that the oil companies’ profit margins for diesel have risen sharply.
The tank discount could end up in the coffers of the petroleum industry
The situation is different with petrol: the refinery price there rose only slightly compared to the price of crude oil by around one cent, but then another around six cents were added to the pump. According to the study, this suggests that the profits from petrol are increasingly hanging in the hands of the gas station operators – which their industry association denies. Overall, according to the study, the mineral oil industry has generated additional gross profits totaling around 3.3 billion euros since Russia attacked Ukraine. This corresponds to a so-called crisis profit of an average of 107 million euros a day.
For motorists, this means that despite the possible tank discount, fuel prices could remain high – the profit only goes even more into the pockets of the mineral oil industry instead of going into the state coffers. This is not the only reason why there are increasing doubts about the usefulness of the planned relief for the government. Low-income earners in particular would benefit little from lower fuel prices, since many of them do not even own a car. According to the Study “Mobility in Germany” this applies to more than half of households with very low economic status.
In addition to the discount at the petrol pump, there should also be a public transport ticket for nine euros per month for three months. Everyone who uses buses, trams and trains would benefit from this – regardless of whether they leave their car at home or are already using public transport. This can work in the short term, like Greenpeace calculations demonstrate. But if the benefits are no longer available, it may look different under certain circumstances. Without a public transport discount, it makes no price difference for a family with two children over the age of 14 whether they travel long-distance with a diesel SUV or with a local transport subscription and a BahnCard 50. For them, an electric car would be the cheapest alternative. In addition, according to Greenpeace: “Households with low incomes fall completely through the cracks.” In their budget of 40 euros per month, “none of the mobility options presented are affordable.”