parties
Survey on Bayern election: CSU loses – AfD grows
According to a Civey survey, Prime Minister Markus Söder’s party gained 36 percent in the wake of the Aiwanger affair. photo
© Sven Hoppe/dpa
The Aiwanger affair seems to damage Prime Minister Söder’s CSU more than Aiwanger’s own party. One month before the Bavarian election, the Free Voters remain stable at twelve percent.
The free voters of Deputy Prime Minister Hubert Aiwanger are therefore stable at 12 percent a month before the state election. The AfD climbs four percentage points to 17 percent in the biweekly online survey.
Despite the leaflet affair, Söder is sticking to his deputy. Aiwanger had denied having written the anti-Semitic pamphlet as a student, but admitted temporary ownership. His brother claimed to have been the author. Other allegations were also made against Aiwanger. He apologized but spoke of a smear campaign. Criticism of him continued as a result.
FDP and left below the five percent hurdle
In the so-called Sunday question at Civey, the AfD with 17 percent now overtakes the Greens, who are at 15 percent. The SPD is still at 10 percent. With 4 and 1 percent respectively, the FDP and the left are below the five percent hurdle and would currently miss out on entering the state parliament.
Basically, election polls only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts for the outcome of the election. They are always fraught with uncertainties. Among other things, declining party loyalty and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it difficult for the opinion research institutes to weight the data collected.