Parliamentary elections in Estonia: the election after the election

Estonia has decided: Prime Minister Kallas’ party will continue to govern. Now the pro-Western politician has a choice. Because of the high proportion of votes, she can now form any coalition she wants.

Voting – this works in Estonia with one click. All you need is a computer with Windows and the official election software. The Estonian Election Commission reported that more people than ever did so in this election, at 51 percent. 1.2 million Estonians were asked to cast their vote.

A large proportion of them voted for Kaja Kallas’ Reform Party. There was great cheering on Sunday evening when the first projections went online and Kallas read them out. “Most of the voters have spoken and if I read it correctly from the screen, things are looking pretty good for us,” she told Estonian TV channel ETV.

According to official counts, Kallas’ liberal business party received 31.2 percent of the vote and thus received 37 of the 101 seats in the Riigikogu, the House of Representatives.

Kallas with a clear stance on Russia

Kallas stands for pro-Western politics and has a clear position on Russia. Among other things, she said that Russian tourists could not be vacationing in Europe while Russian soldiers were invading Ukraine. With clear words to Moscow and great support for Ukraine, she won sympathy in the country – and defended it.

Her main opponent, Martin Helme of the right-wing populist Estonian Conservative People’s Party (EKRE), accused Kallas of overdoing it in supporting Ukraine and thus endangering Estonia’s security. His party was the second strongest force, but with 15.3 percent it got just half as many votes as Kallas, who is ahead, especially among online voters.

“E-Voting” – simple and voluntary

For “e-voting” the Estonians needed a computer, an ID card and a special card reader. Voting only takes a few minutes: After downloading the app from the electoral authority’s website, the voter identifies himself with a PIN code, votes and verifies the election with his digital signature – that’s it. Alternatively, a mobile phone with a special SIM card can also be used for identification.

In contrast to the traditional ballot, the voter can change his mind again before the end of the election – only the last vote cast counts in the end. If he goes to a conventional polling station on election day, when “e-voting” is no longer possible, and casts a paper ballot, the vote cast online will be annulled. The final results of “e-voting” are therefore only available after the polling stations have been closed and a double voting check has been carried out.

Competitor “can’t take election result seriously”

In an interview with the broadcaster ETV, Helme does not want to accept Kallas’ success, especially in online voting. “The way I see it, those who voted with controllable or countable votes just supported the conservative worldview. And when the electronic votes come, everything is turned upside down. I’m sorry, but I can’t take that seriously .”

In purely mathematical terms, it is not possible for the right-wing populists to form a government majority, as several parties have refused to cooperate. The parliament has 101 seats, mathematically 51 seats would be enough. However, the past has shown that thin majorities are not always stable.

The agony of choice

Kallas now has several options with her reform party, explains Anvar Samost, head of news at the public broadcaster ERR, on the night: “In fact, it is now one of the historically largest groups in parliament. From this group, the reform party can form practically any coalition , which she only wants. Maybe only with EKRE it won’t work out.”

The Liberals’ preferred coalition would consist of Kallas Reform Party, the Social Liberal Party of Estonia 200 and the Social Democrats. That would comfortably suffice for a governing majority. A continuation of the previous coalition with the Social Democrats and the conservative Fatherland Party would also be possible – or an alliance with the Center Party. Kallas now has choice after choice.

“First of all, I really want to thank all our constituents. Thank you for the trust. Thank you that we have been able to lead the government for two years now,” said Kallas. “We are very grateful that they appreciated our work so much.”

The official election result is still pending and is expected tomorrow at the latest.