General election
Portugal: Forecasts show a violent shift to the right
The Portuguese center-right Democratic Alliance party has won the parliamentary election according to initial forecasts. photo
© Armando Franca/AP/dpa
Portugal has long been considered a bulwark against right-wing extremists. But corruption, housing shortages and other social and economic problems have probably put an end to this choice of direction.
However, it was not the AD that was primarily responsible for the shift to the right, but rather the populist party Chega (Enough), which was only founded in 2019 and which, according to RTP, has grown considerably: according to the station’s survey, from a good seven percent in the last election at the beginning of 2022 to now 14 up to 17 percent. As predicted by all opinion research institutes, this means that one of the last bulwarks against right-wing extremism in Europe is falling.
Other Portuguese media published similar figures to RTP in the evening, shortly after the last polling stations in the Azores closed at 9 p.m. CET. In the last election in January 2022, the PS won with a good 41 percent and won an absolute majority with 120 of the 230 seats in the Lisbon “Assembleia da República”.
Portugal’s President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called the vote in November after the Socialist Prime Minister António Costa resigned in the wake of a corruption scandal and remained in office only in an acting capacity.
Forming a government could be difficult
A “grand coalition” between PS and AD is considered impossible. Montenegro will therefore probably have to rely on agreements with smaller parties. The 51-year-old trained lawyer will rely primarily on the Liberal Initiative (IL), which can expect up to seven percent. However, both parties are far from having a majority capable of governing. In view of the looming difficulties in forming a government, observers predicted a new election in the summer before the vote.
The main reason: Montenegro does not want to negotiate with the Chega party of former TV sports commentator André Ventura, who is becoming the unpopular “kingmaker”. In Portugal – similar to the AfD in Germany – there is still a so-called firewall to the right.
At home and abroad, the Socialists’ earlier success was hailed as the “Portuguese miracle.” After the euro debt crisis, Costa led the former EU problem child very solidly for years. Spending discipline but also social responsibility characterized his work. Over the years, the economy has almost always grown above the EU average, and unemployment and debt have been steadily reduced.
Several corruption scandals, including at the state airline TAP, put an end to the success story. At its peak, Costa faced allegations of corruption in lithium and hydrogen projects in November. According to the current status of the investigation, the 62-year-old was not personally guilty of anything.
The election was also characterized by social and economic problems such as housing shortages and inflation, which hit the low-wage country particularly hard – and which, according to observers, also provide breeding ground for the shift to the right. Since the end of the pandemic, Portugal has been overwhelmed by an increasing wave of strikes: doctors, teachers, police officers and many others are protesting ever louder.