Democrats and Republicans could hardly be further apart in their positions – this offers both parties the chance to score points with their issues. Two issues are top of mind for voters.
The economy and inflation are by far the most important election issues for many Americans. Prices have not recently risen as much as they did a year ago. In December 2022, the inflation rate was 6.45 percent, most recently it had fallen to 3.14 percent. Nevertheless, according to surveys, the majority of Americans are currently dissatisfied with President Joe Biden’s economic policy.
Another issue that is important to many Americans is playing into the hands of the ruling Democrats: the debate about abortion. Since the Supreme Court overturned the general right to abortion in 2022, there have been different rules in every state. Biden is committed to a liberal right – and is scoring points with many groups of voters, says Stephen Ansolabehere, politics professor at Harvard University: “The fact that some conservative states like Texas suddenly have such strict rules that no one is allowed to have an abortion anymore That drives some voters to the Democrats.”
Increasingly relevant: migration
Climate change is also a topic that is more likely to help the Democrats, who have set more ambitious goals for containing its consequences than the Republicans.
However, politics professor Ansolabehere believes that the Democrats have a major weakness when it comes to another very decisive issue: migration. The demand for stricter rules for asylum seekers and for tougher treatment of migrants who come into the country via the southern border from Mexico is also becoming louder in parts of the country’s political center.
Internally, however, the Democrats have not yet been able to agree on a common strategy. That’s a big challenge, according to Ansolabehere: “The left wing of the Democrats is against stricter rules on immigration, in contrast to the moderate part of the party.”
Foreign policy fatigue
Foreign policy in the USA is also currently in focus, especially because of its domestic impact: the war in the Gaza Strip is causing protests among many younger Americans. Almost two years after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, support for further US support for Kiev is also dwindling; especially among Republican voters.
As a rule, however, US voters are not particularly interested in foreign policy, explains Allan Lichtman, a political scientist at the American University in Washington. However, “Great successes or failures can make a difference.”
It’s also about people
And then it’s not just about content, but also about people. This will be particularly important in 2024, says Lichtman. Because there are two special features: 81-year-old Joe Biden, already the oldest US president, is running again and his likely challenger Donald Trump, himself 77 years old, has to face several court cases parallel to the election campaign.
Biden is behind in current polls. But the numbers are not yet particularly meaningful for the election results: in the past, they have changed frequently in the last eleven months before a presidential election.
Arne Bartram, ARD Washington, tagesschau, December 27th, 2023 1:13 p.m