Nord Stream Pipelines: Difficult search for the culprit

The German security authorities have become loud ARD-Capital studio has not yet determined who is responsible for the explosions at the Nord Stream pipelines. The course of events is still completely unclear.

In several committees of the Bundestag, the members of parliament were informed in partly confidential meetings on Tuesday about the findings that the security authorities have received so far. Much is therefore still completely unclear.

This applies in particular to the question of how explosives got to the pipelines and when. It is considered certain that the explosions were deliberately caused. Only in the morning did it become known that there were actually four leaks in the pipelines and not three, as previously reported. There are two leaks each within the Danish and Swedish economic zones.

Russia’s perpetrators “obvious”

Group circles say that the German security authorities have not yet determined who caused the explosions. The only thing that is largely certain is that in the end only one state actor can be considered. It is said that it is most likely that this is Russia. So far, however, there is no evidence of this, only probabilities.

The CDU MP Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU), member of the parliamentary control committee of the Bundestag for the intelligence services, said in the ARD-Morgenmagazin, he thinks it’s “obvious that Russia could have done it”. At the same time, however, Kiesewetter urged prudence in the investigation.

Speaking in favor of Russia as the culprit is that the Kremlin has an interest in stirring up uncertainty in Europe and that energy prices continue to rise. On the other hand, it seems less plausible that by destroying the pipelines the Kremlin is ultimately depriving itself of the opportunity to sell large quantities of gas to Europe in the future. Russia denies any responsibility and speaks of an “involvement” of another state. It is true that the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines are majority Russian-owned.

In principle, other countries besides Russia could also be considered as polluters, such as the USA or the countries bordering the Baltic Sea. At least they would all be able to perform such an operation. In German security circles, however, this is considered unlikely, after all, these are NATO and EU countries. Both NATO and the EU have condemned the explosions as an act of sabotage. The Ukraine itself seems all the more improbable, if such an operation would be logistically almost impossible to accomplish due to the distance.

Was explosives dumped?

Attempts are currently being made to reconstruct what exactly happened. A task that is currently being pursued primarily by the Federal Intelligence Service (BND). But the task is anything but easy. It is true that one can determine which ships were in the vicinity of the explosion sites in the days and weeks before the explosions. But no one knows how long it has been since explosives were dumped on the pipelines.

The question is also how this was accomplished – be it by divers or by means of manned or unmanned micro-submarines. Some of these cannot be located, according to security circles. It is conceivable, it is said in faction circles, that it will not be possible to reconstruct the course of events.

infrastructure at risk

Against the background of the events, how the critical infrastructure can be better protected is also being discussed. In the case of pipelines or communication networks that run thousands of kilometers below the surface of the sea, however, this is only possible to a limited extent and certainly not in full. Basically, an attack on a pipeline is a scenario that was always within the realm of possibility.

The “Spiegel” reported on Tuesday about a warning from the US secret service CIA of an attack of this kind. As the ARD-Capital Studio from parliamentary groups in the Bundestag, the German security authorities did not attach any particular relevance to this warning. In fact, the CIA tip arrived at the beginning of the summer, several months ago. In addition, he was very vague and had already been classified by the CIA as rather implausible, it is said.

The security authorities have been warning of attacks on German infrastructure since the outbreak of war. Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) has now explained that the Nord Stream case shows once again how closely external and internal security are linked. “We have to prepare for scenarios that were unthinkable until recently.”

Since the outbreak of war, the risk of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure in Germany has been particularly high. In security circles, however, physical attacks on German soil are also conceivable, for example by infiltrated Russian special forces.