interview
Lindner’s austerity course
No household? No drama! Why the traffic light could also do without a budget
Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (l., FDP) and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD)
© Kay Nietfeld / DPA
Everyone is excited about the budget drama at the traffic lights. But does the government even have to present a budget? No, says administrative expert René Geißler – and outlines possible consequences in Stern.
Mr. Geißler, the traffic light is fighting over money. You are a professor of public administration – how disturbed are you by the drama?
Actually not at all. What we are experiencing right now is normal Budget planning procedures. It’s about the budget for 2025. We are at the beginning of the negotiations. There is a traditional crunch. Budget negotiations are always a highly political and controversial process. It’s about content and power. At the same time, such conflicts are also a ritual.
But several ministries are completely defying the austerity guidelines Christian Lindner. Not an affront from your point of view?
The behavior doesn’t surprise me at all. Budget negotiations almost never happen without arguments. When there is really a lot of money, the economy is booming and tax revenue is flowing, then planning is calmer because all the departments’ wishes can be satisfied. But that is not the normal case. This year the debt brake is in effect, we have high inflation and international crises. The distribution struggle is getting bigger. From the ministries’ point of view, it would even be tactically unwise to follow the finance minister in the first round. Because there are still a few rounds of negotiations to come before the summer break.
A cabinet decision must be made at the beginning of July – the budget must be in place by then at the latest.
Not necessarily. That would be desirable, but it doesn’t have to be. The federal budget regulations stipulate that the government should introduce the budget law in September. But if it takes longer, it just takes longer. The risk then increases that the Bundestag will no longer be able to approve the budget for the current year and that there will be no budget for a few months next year. But that in itself wouldn’t be a drama.
Please?
The Basic Law foresaw this risk and made regulations. Everything would just continue as before, at least for the most part. Everything that is regulated by law and would be necessary for the administration to function is guaranteed. Salaries would continue to be paid. The citizens’ money would be transferred. Everyone would go to work.
In such a case, there is a threat of shutdown in the USA.
Yes, this is deliberately not supposed to happen in Germany. Budget law is designed in such a way that the collapse of the administration is ruled out – regardless of whether there is a budget agreement or not.
Are there no fixed deadlines at all?
Actually not. Theoretically, the government wouldn’t need a budget at all. Let’s assume that the traffic light doesn’t manage to come to an agreement by the end of the year – then it would have to go into the provisional budget management. Everything has already happened, for example in the last household.
What would be the disadvantage?
It would actually be an advantage for the finance minister. Politically he would be strengthened, nothing would go against him. Savings would be made. However, the government would not be able to start new projects. It could not omit any new construction contracts or start any investments. The Bundeswehr could not order any new tanks. Hiring staff would also be very difficult. New funding programs would be blocked.
Would aid to Ukraine be secured?
New orders and procurements would not be possible for the time being. Since these procurements in particular always take a very long time, Ukraine would only feel the effects of this with a delay.
The traffic light already has a terrible reputation – if it didn’t even agree on a budget, that would be its final knockout, wouldn’t it?
That would be very, very bad for the government’s external perception. But it’s only the beginning of May. At the moment, as I said, the process is still going pretty much as expected. If the government has not found an agreement in six months, it will go into interim budget management. Until then, things aren’t that exciting.