Would the exit from fossil fuels, embodied in particular by the “net zero emissions” objective, cause the death of several billion people? This is what publications on social networks, relayed in several languages on Facebook like on X.
In France, a tweet seen several tens of thousands of times states in particular that “eminent experts” had determined that the “net zero emissions” objective would result in “the deaths of more than four billion people”.
The tweet refers to an article to support its point, the title of which can be read in the shared image: “Experts warn: ‘net zero’ policy will kill more than 4 billion people.” This articlepublished on an Austrian site entitled “TKP, The blog of science and politics”, dates from December 22, 2023.
The article is based in part on a tweet by Björn Lomborg, Danish author known for his climate skeptic positions and in particular his book entitled The Skeptical Ecologist – The True State of the Planet published in 1998. Björn Lomborg’s positions have also been highlighted several times by verification organizations for their inaccuracy.
The tweet is based on an article published by British economist and businessman Neil Record in the Telegraph, titled: “What Could Happen If We Just Stopped Oil? Six billion [de personnes] could die. The article (archived here), which criticizes the slogan “just stop oil” [arrêtons le pétrole] of environmental activists, imagine what would happen if the world suddenly stopped all energy production from fossil fuels, namely “oil, gas and coal”.
After massive power outages, famines and depleting fuel reserves, the author of the article imagines that “just three months or so since the world stopped oil […] about half the world’s population (say four billion people) would be dead.
Neil Record is the president of “Net Zero Watch” (formerly Global Warming Policy Forum), an offshoot of a British climate think tank.
FAKE OFF
The Austrian article on which the viral tweet is based therefore never addresses the question of the “net zero emissions” objective.
This objective, notably supported by the UN, aims to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as agreed in 2015 during COP21. This goal requires a reduction in emissions from fossil fuels, to reach a balance with the emissions absorbed by forests and oceans.
As described on the UN page dedicated to this objective, it is absolutely not expected that its application will result in a sudden cessation of the use of fossil fuels. These energies will have to be replaced by “energy produced from renewable sources, such as wind or solar energy, would significantly reduce carbon emissions”.
Insufficient commitments
To prove their commitment to reducing these emissions, the signatory countries of the Paris agreements undertake to deliver every five years proof of their commitment.
Despite promises from several countries to strengthen their action during COP26 in 2021, current commitments remain insufficient. The UN notably warned in November that current commitments will only lead to a 2% reduction in emissions compared to the 2019 level, instead of the 43% targeted by 2030.
The UN Climate also published in October an assessment of the policies put in place after the Paris agreement. The observation is clear: “We must do much more now, on all fronts. “.