Nikki Haley, as they say across the Atlantic, “is having a moment”. The only woman in the Republican primary, the former governor of South Carolina shudders in the polls, is omnipresent in the media, and she seduces rich Republican donors with a view to the 2024 presidential election. With a new televised debate, Wednesday, reduced with only four candidates, she could try to push Ron DeSantis a little further to pose as the only alternative to Donald Trump. And if the former president’s 50-point lead in the polls seems insurmountable, Nikki Haley still has a card to play in the first three ballots starting in mid-January.
Haley ambushed behind DeSantis in polls
Donald Trump, who is ignoring televised debates for the moment, continues his solitary escape. The former president now exceeds 60% of voting intentions, according to the average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, compared to 13% for Ron DeSantis and 10% for Nikki Haley. But this figure includes studies from the last 30 days. In the four most recent polls, DeSantis (12.5%) and Haley (11.5%) are neck and neck.
The former United States ambassador to the UN benefits from strong winds after each TV debate – where she shows herself to be solid on the international level and measured on abortion – as well as from the postponement of the votes of candidates who throw in the towel , like Tim Scott.
The punters are not mistaken: on PredictItthe highest odds obviously remain that of Donald Trump (at 77 cents, out of a maximum of 99 cents), while that of Haley is bought at 18 cents, compared to only 6 cents for DeSantis.
Donor Support
The “Never Trump” movement of conservatives who want any candidate but Donald Trump appears to be unifying behind Nikki Haley. The candidate struck a major blow by obtaining the support of billionaire Charles Koch, via his Americans for Prosperity group. It’s not just access to his checkbook: in every state, AFA has employees who will go door to door to try to convince voters to support Haley.
Opposite, Ron DeSantis continues restructuring his campaign team, without being able to get back on track. Ken Lagone, principal financier of the Home Depot DIY chain, and who until now was betting on the governor of Florida, declared on CNBC that Nikki Haley was now “the only one” who could beat Donald Trump. LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman, who supports Democratic causes and wants to block Trump, wrote a check for $250,000 to a pro-Haley political group. Six weeks before the first elections, Nikki Haley will be able to spend lavishly and flood Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina with TV spots.
Everything can change quickly
Donald Trump’s 50-point lead is partly misleading. These are national polls, but primaries are won state by state. And in Iowa, which will open the ball on January 15, it is twice as close: at the end of October, Donald Trump was at 43%, ahead of Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis tied at 16%.
If Haley manages to finish second, she could then defeat DeSantis in New Hampshire – a relatively moderate state – on January 23. Then ride this wave and hope to create a surprise at home against Donald Trump in South Carolina on February 24.
In American politics, everything can happen very quickly. In December 2007, Barack Obama was 20 points behind Hillary Clinton. That didn’t stop him from winning the Iowa caucus, then the nomination and the presidential election.