Nigeria in times of crisis: Africa’s largest democracy votes

Fuel crisis, lack of cash, terrorism. Although Nigeria is Africa’s largest democracy, it is also a country marked by many crises. The outcome of today’s election is completely open for several reasons.

Stand in line. Wait. In the center of Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, cars are queuing in front of a gas station one day before the election. Nothing moves. 20 meters, 50 meters, the line gets longer and longer. Some drivers turn off the engine and get out. A man in his silver chariot has just arrived at the end of the line.

It’s not the first gas station today where he has to wait, he says: “Sometimes you go to a certain gas station and if you don’t have any cash, they won’t sell you anything. I don’t have any cash, which makes everything difficult and very stressful .”

Oil rich country without gas and cash

What this driver addresses are two crises that make life difficult for many people in Nigeria. Firstly, the fuel crisis. This is paradoxical for many, given that Nigeria is Africa’s oil and gas giant. Despite this, Africa’s largest economy imports expensive petrol and diesel from abroad. The reason is, among other things, the missing and ailing refineries in the country. But the fuel crisis is not the only one that is bothering many people.

Five young women are sitting on a blanket on the large green lawn in Abuja’s Millennium Park, having a picnic. They are all first time voters. They don’t really feel like going to the elections. The reason: the cash is missing. Trust in politics too.

“We can’t even access our own bank account with our own money. And then banks sell the new money, so you take your money out of your account to buy money from the bank. I don’t understand why we’re holding elections right now – just name someone who will let us continue to suffer,” says one of the women.

New banknotes against electoral fraud

What the students describe: There is almost no cash. The background: Nigeria’s government wanted to introduce new banknotes, according to its own statements, to make it more difficult to buy votes and finance terrorism. Since then, many people have not been able to get cash. The banks don’t have enough of the new banknotes. Although the government has pushed back the deadline for the old notes, it hasn’t really improved the situation – many no longer accept the old naira notes.

There are many other stands in the parking lot of the park. Today there weren’t any customers, says the shop assistant: “Even our shop assistants are asking if I can help with the transport. Someone has just left who asked if I could help him with cash so that he can get home. Look, there are no more vendors here. As a business woman, I didn’t have cash to get to my stand yesterday. I had to pay money to get money. Some are hungry, can’t even buy food anymore. How are we supposed to vote? go if we have nothing to eat?”

terrorism and crime

In other areas, people are more concerned about their safety. The US embassy has warned its citizens against traveling to Nigeria, including on charges of terrorism and kidnapping. A few days before the election, the Nigerian authorities have visibly increased the presence of security forces in the country. It’s not just about riots and protests.

ISWAP, an IS affiliate in West Africa, has replaced Boko Haram as the country’s deadliest terrorist militia. At the same time, ethnic conflicts and criminal gangs, which not only attack people but also kidnap numerous school children, worsen the security situation.

Nigeria feels climate change

Another issue is climate change. Only in October last year did Nigeria experience flooding like it had not done in a decade. Hundreds of thousands lost their homes and hundreds died in the floods. According to the United Nations, more than 2.5 million people are in need of help – most of them children. Nigeria’s multiple crises have left millions of people internally displaced.

corruption and instability

Rampant corruption and the massive economic crisis mean that almost two thirds of the population live in extreme poverty. This is another reason why many see the current elections as a glimmer of hope, explains Cynthia Mbamalu from Yiaga Africa, an NGO that works for democracy and fair elections. Yiaga Africa sends more than 3,000 election observers out of a total of 145,000 to polling stations across the country.

There is a lot at stake, especially for young people. After all, a good 70 percent of all eligible voters in this election are under the age of 49, and 37 percent are under 34. The future of these people must be drastically improved, says Cynthia Mbamalu. Otherwise it would have drastic international repercussions: “The election sends a message that Nigeria is a democracy. These elections are critical within the West African sub-region, especially with all the coup attempts and persistent attempts to undermine democracy.”

Nigeria is the largest black nation – West Africa cannot withstand a refugee crisis if Nigeria becomes unstable, Mbamalu said. “We already have a lot of young Nigerians who want to leave. If Nigeria becomes too unstable to live in, it will put pressure on countries on the continent and in the west. Because it will be difficult to accommodate the large number of people looking for a way out if the system doesn’t work here. This election is significant. We have to show that there is hope.”

New favorite promises change

This time, young voters could fundamentally change Nigeria’s electoral history. For the first time, three of the 18 presidential candidates are considered favorites. Normally, the candidate from the current governing party, the APC, and the largest opposition party, the PDP, are neck and neck in the race. What is new is that a third party, Peter Obi from the Labor Party, is now expected to have a good chance. The 61-year-old is the youngest of the three favourites.

His regular fan base calls itself the “obi-dient” – a play on the English obidient (obedient) and Peter Obi’s name. Obi presents itself as an alternative to the corrupt elite. Especially the young people who took to the streets against police violence and corruption in 2020 support Obi. The big question remains how many voters can be mobilized at the ballot box. According to experts, an election in Nigeria has never been so unpredictable.