Would he finally move in Madrid, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and move away from the no to the northern expansion of NATO by admitting Sweden and Finland? Before Erdoğan left for the military alliance’s big summit on Tuesday, he signaled little if any inclination to compromise: both countries must not just deliver words, but deliver results and meet Ankara’s expectations, he said. The day before, Erdoğan was not very conciliatory: “Tomorrow we will go to the NATO summit in Spain and do everything necessary in accordance with the rights and interests of our country,” the government in Ankara announced. The interlocutors will be explained their “hypocrisy” towards “terrorist organizations” with “documents, information and pictures”.
In addition to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Sweden’s Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö, whose countries want to exchange their neutrality for a place under the NATO protective umbrella in view of Russia’s aggressiveness, were waiting as discussion partners in Madrid. In May, they applied to join the alliance of 30 countries that is arming itself for the new threat situation and wants to define the “strategic concept” up to 2030 in Madrid.
Erdoğan justifies his objection with Sweden and Finland’s alleged support of “terrorist organizations” – which Stockholm and Helsinki deny. It’s about the Kurdish workers’ party PKK and the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG, which are banned as terrorist in Turkey. Erdoğan is demanding that Sweden and Finland tighten terror laws and extradite 33 Turkish government opponents to Ankara. The Scandinavians reject this as it would conflict with their constitutions. Attempts at mediation brought no rapprochement.
So the confidence before the talks with Erdoğan remained limited. Andersson said Monday on the sidelines of a meeting with Stoltenberg in Brussels: “I very much hope that this dialogue can be successfully concluded in the near future, preferably before the summit.” Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde formulated very cautiously: “We are prepared for the possibility of a positive development today, but it may take longer,” she told the newspaper Svenska Dagbladet. Stoltenberg was cautiously optimistic, but dared not make any predictions. Finn Niinistö said he was “neither optimistic nor pessimistic” about the meeting with the Turkish president. But he sees progress, the pace of negotiations has increased.
Is the man from Ankara just pushing up the price for his yes?
Erdoğan comes to Madrid with further demands, which should probably be the subject of a talk with US President Joe Biden. This will take place on Wednesday, according to the White House – Further details were not available on Tuesday. The Turk wants more weapons, not least US-type fighter jets F16 buy and accuses the US of delaying tactics. Observers assume that Erdoğan is using his veto against NATO’s northern expansion as a means of exerting pressure. Relations with the USA are tense: Washington is angry because the NATO country Turkey received the missile defense system from Russia S-400 bought, and Ankara, because the Americans are cooperating with the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria.
To the concern of NATO partners – especially the United States – Erdoğan is currently planning a military offensive against the YPG in neighboring Syria, where the Kurdish militia controls areas. Erdoğan confirmed on Monday that his troops would strike as soon as everything was ready. He is under domestic political pressure, mainly because of the rapid inflation.