Had Vladimir Putin not launched his murderous war of aggression against Ukraine, the NATO summit in Madrid might have become a meeting of old friends who, out of habit, cling to their connection but have lost each other a bit. The Russian President’s attack on the peace order in Europe, unprecedented since the end of the Second World War, reminded the western defense alliance, which has occasionally been declared “brain dead”, of its purpose in life, in a way that many in Europe and especially in Germany can no longer remember could or wanted to imagine – despite the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Thankfully for its allies, Ukraine bravely and at great cost resisted the Russian invasion. It gives the alliance time to adjust to the new reality in which Putin wants to use force to move borders again and has entire cities shot to rubble. From this arises the obligation to support Kyiv, also and especially with arms. And the need to realign NATO. Ten years ago, the Strategic Concept, the Alliance’s basic doctrine, still referred to Russia as a partner, and China wasn’t even mentioned. Now Putin’s empire is rightly being described as the “greatest and most immediate threat to the security of the allies and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”
In the late phase of its existence, the Soviet Union was interested in preserving the status quo. That is why the West was able to come to far-reaching disarmament agreements with her. Their economic collapse led to the peaceful end of the Cold War. Putin, however, has deliberately upgraded Russia and transformed it into a revisionist power that claims spheres of influence and wants to use force to subdue neighboring states. His declared goal is not only to wipe out Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state, but also to push back NATO. He has declared war on the EU and the liberal democracies. Those who don’t take this seriously should only look to Irpin, Bucha, Mariupol or Sievjerodonetsk.
Joe Biden means business
For NATO, this means preparing for a protracted standoff with Moscow, at least as long as Putin is in power in Moscow. And even after that it would be extremely questionable whether a new ruler in the Kremlin would revise the basic lines of the aggressive and imperialist foreign policy. As long as this policy exists, however, it is the task of the G7 and the EU to isolate Moscow politically and economically. NATO’s contribution is the containment of Russia, military and also nuclear deterrence.
In doing so, it will be dependent on the USA for the foreseeable future. The increase in US troops in Europe announced by President Joe Biden is to be welcomed and demonstrates that America is serious about the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It is also right to reinforce the troops on NATO’s eastern flank and to put 300,000 soldiers on increased readiness. But the European allies – above all Germany, France and Great Britain – have to take on a much larger part of the burden as quickly as possible than before.
A welcome strengthening of the transatlantic alliance is the planned accession of Finland and Sweden. In the face of Russian aggression, they traded their decades of neutrality for NATO’s obligation to provide assistance. Putin couldn’t be shown more clearly how much his own policies are leading to the West finding new unity. However, the cracks are also showing: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who not too long ago bought air defense systems from Putin, is playing out his particular interests in a tough manner. This dispute has not yet been settled with the declaration of intent, which saves the Madrid summit from a scandal, but only with the ratification of the accession by the Turkish parliament.
It is important to use the coming years to consolidate the alliance and strengthen its European pillar, also in cooperation with the European Union. Because the Americans will focus on the challenge from China in the medium term. Beijing is also trying to reshape the international order according to its own ideas, albeit not so far with the brute force that Putin is counting on. As early as 2024, someone could move into the White House in the USA who shows far less solidarity towards Europe than Biden does. But Putin will seize every opportunity to test NATO’s cohesion if he senses a moment of weakness, such as after the West pulled out of Afghanistan. Destroying the western alliance is and remains his ultimate goal.