Status: 05/12/2022 04:13 a.m
Finland’s government wants to comment today on the country’s plans to join NATO. The headquarters in Brussels assures that the alliance is ready – and already has plans for Russia’s reaction.
For weeks now, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has only been able to repeat his Finnish-Swedish mantra – and he apparently likes to do it again and again. “Of course, Finland and Sweden must decide for themselves whether they want to become members. But if they do, NATO will welcome them with open arms,” he assured.
Member states such as Germany, France, Great Britain, Poland and the USA have already openly pledged their support. And the NATO headquarters in Brussels are very confident that in the end all 30 members of the alliance would give the applications from Helsinki and Stockholm the green light – that is, unanimously, as required by the NATO statutes.
From a NATO perspective, accession by Finland and Sweden would be attractive. Both countries have a lot of experience and have been involved in the Partnership for Peace, an association of NATO and non-NATO countries, for decades. And they are also part of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.
“Active Partners”
Both countries had modern and competent armed forces that met NATO standards, says Stoltenberg. “Finnish and Swedish troops have exercised so frequently with NATO in the past that they are practically interoperable. We have conducted many joint missions and operations with Finland and Sweden.”
It is not for nothing that NATO praises Stockholm and Helsinki as particularly “active partners” – after all, they have taken part in the alliance’s operations in the Balkans, in Afghanistan and in Iraq. At least since the Russian annexation of Crimea, Finnish-Swedish cooperation with NATO has continued to grow. Both countries have now increased their defense spending – and could now significantly increase NATO’s capabilities in northern Europe with a view to troop levels and weapon systems.
Moscow is threatening consequences
Finland and Sweden have a lot to offer the alliance – a provocation for Russia: The Kremlin has already warned that Sweden and Finland joining NATO would have military and political consequences. Moscow would be forced to increase its military presence in the region, said Dmitri Medvedev, ex-president and now deputy head of the Russian Security Council.
Even if experts consider a Russian military action on Finland and Sweden to be unlikely: Russia could launch cyber attacks, violate the airspace, move weapon systems to the border, which is 1,300 kilometers long with Finland.
All the more important is the promise for Finland and Sweden that they will receive support during the accession procedures that may now be imminent. Because both countries fear that they would be particularly vulnerable in this phase. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also sees the risk. But he says: “Once we have decided to invite Finland and Sweden as potential members, we are sending a strong political signal that the security of these countries is a concern for all NATO partners of the countries and the agreement of the member states will find a good solution, especially for Finland and Sweden.”
“Train is out of the station”
That means: On the one hand, the NATO countries would keep the period from application to membership as short as possible, so their 30 national parliaments would have to clear the way for the two new members as quickly as possible. On the other hand, in the meantime, they have declared their willingness to protect in principle – even if the alliance case, the NATO security guarantee according to Article 5, would not then apply to Finland and Sweden.
Russian threats would only strengthen his country’s decision to join NATO anyway, explains Alexander Stubb, former Finnish prime minister and foreign minister. “The train has left the station and we’re on board,” he writes on twitter.
For its part, NATO has set the course: The train is to take Finland and Sweden to Madrid, for the NATO summit in June.