Less than two weeks have passed since Monika Schnitzer presented Chancellor Merkel with the expert opinion of the German Economic Advisory Council. “The reception was friendly,” she said on Monday evening after her lecture at the series of events Munich Economic Debates, a cooperation between Ifo and Süddeutscher Zeitung. No wonder, after all, the forecasts of the four economies were quite optimistic. However, since the reception in Berlin, the corona situation has worsened enormously, the 7-day incidence has more than doubled in the two weeks mentioned. So it is not surprising that Schnitzer chooses her words very carefully that evening, has retained her positive mood, but speaks quite often in the subjunctive when it comes to the expert opinion of the economic methods.
“Of course you should add that there was a question mark behind the title,” emphasized Schnitzer right at the beginning when Ifo President Clemens Fuest presented it and led to her lecture entitled “From the Corona crisis back to normality” . Despite the delivery bottlenecks, the economy is quite optimistic about the current situation, repeating the 2.7 percent economic growth forecast in the report for this year and even 4.6 percent for the next. “This should mean that we should be back at the pre-crisis level next year,” says Schnitzer.
Inequality of opportunity and training remain a problem
Even with inflation, which is likely to fall again, the labor market, which has remained more stable during Corona than in previous crises thanks to corporate aid such as short-time work benefits, as well as the risk of a possible increase in bankruptcies, these would mainly affect small and very small businesses and therefore the economy Hardly any burden, Schnitzer and the Expert Council are cautiously optimistic. However, persistent delivery bottlenecks or even another lockdown could quickly let the air out of overly positive forecasts.
Schnitzer is of course aware of this, especially since in the second part of her lecture she discusses how Germany can shape a transformation. Part of the problem is, for example, inequality of opportunity. In this context, Schnitzer shows a graphic on children’s reading skills, which only in Israel is even more dependent on the education of parents than in Germany. “And the problem got even worse during the crisis,” says Schnitzer of the learning backlog. There is also some catching up to do in Germany when it comes to further training for skilled workers. Only ten percent of employees would or would be able to take advantage of such offers. In Switzerland or Sweden, however, according to the Advisory Council, the proportion is significantly higher at around 30 percent.