With their revolt, Wagner’s private army exposed the weaknesses of the power apparatus in Moscow. Kremlin boss Putin senses “treason” – and has to accept defeat. How strong is his position?
Wagner’s Russian private army stopped their march to Moscow with tanks and thousands of mercenaries. About 200 kilometers from the capital, mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin whistled his troops back on Saturday evening – just as suddenly as the lightning revolt had begun. The Wagner men also withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, where they had occupied the regional army headquarters and an airport.
Prigozhin’s connection with Vladimir Putin is now severed. The ex-confidant, like Putin from St. Petersburg, must now seek refuge in neighboring Belarus. The Kremlin boss himself, in turn, laments a “blow in the back” and above all “treason” – in the middle of his chaotic war against Ukraine. After more than 23 years in power, the 70-year-old is the big loser in the Wagner rebellion. But: Putin survived the uprising.
Prigozhin, whose mercenaries in Africa, Syria and also in Ukraine achieved important successes for the Kremlin, has now left Putin. He can continue his mercenary operations from Belarus in the future. However, important parts of its troops are subordinated to the Ministry of Defense in Moscow.
The chapter of the Wagner army in the Ukraine should thus be over for the time being – to the relief also in Kiev, which saw the well-trained mercenaries as dangerous opponents. Ukraine continued its counter-offensive over the weekend in the shadow of the unprecedented power struggle in Russia, which means a further weakening of Putin.
friend or not friend
But Prigozhin not only broke up publicly with his longtime friend. The 62-year-old negotiated the end of the uprising with Alexander Lukashenko of all people in Belarus – the two have allegedly known each other for 20 years. Putin actually sees Lukashenko as a ruler by his grace. Now Lukashenko can boast that he prevented a “bloodbath” – and secured power for the Kremlin boss. For now at least.
On the other hand, Putin, who once again warned against the destruction of Russia in a speech on Saturday, seemed at times to be barely in control of the situation. Military vehicles in the center of the capital, the declaration of an anti-terror emergency in Moscow and the surrounding area showed how great the fear in the Kremlin is of a coup and a violent takeover of power.
The Wagner chief’s aim with his uprising was to get Putin’s voice heard. For months now, Prigozhin’s critical tirades have bounced off the Kremlin walls about the warfare in Ukraine, which has been full of defeats. The Wagner boss blames Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valeri Gerasimov for abuses in the military, but also for the poor equipment and, above all, for the deaths of more than 10,000 Wagner mercenaries.
assertion and counter-assertion
The specific trigger for the uprising, however, was Prigozhin’s accusation that the Ministry of Defense had even ordered an attack on a Wagner position. The ministry rejected that. Equipped with a full-fledged army including tanks and aircraft, Prigozhin wanted to prevent the Shoigu from integrating the private army – like about 40 other volunteer units – into the regular army by July 1, as ordered from above.
“We don’t want the country to continue living in corruption, fraud and bureaucracy,” Prigozhin said of his motives. However, he himself has benefited from this system for decades. He received billions in orders from the Kremlin and was always considered the untouchable – also because of his closeness to Putin. That’s over now. Nevertheless, Prigozhin and his insurgents remain unpunished, although they are said to have killed at least a dozen pilots during the uprising by shooting down several helicopters and one plane.
Prigozhin himself once threatened that he could do great damage to the power apparatus with his knowledge and probably also plenty of material. No one in Moscow doubted during Prigozhin’s “Justice March” on Saturday that Putin would have his longtime confidant killed in order to remain in power.
Putin’s power is eroding
From the point of view of political scientist Tatyana Stanovaja, what remains is a further erosion of Putin’s power. “This is a huge defeat for him,” she wrote on Telegram. Prigozhin was underestimated. Nevertheless, he has no allies in the elite or a real chance to seize power. Putin’s resources, on the other hand, are still enormous.
But ever since the Russian border region of Belgorod, among other things, has been repeatedly attacked and heavily shelled by Ukraine, it has become clear that Putin’s monopoly on the use of force is eroding. Many Russians no longer feel adequately protected. Prigozhin also took up the security issues again and again, which is why his popularity ratings skyrocketed.
The political scientist Abbas Galljamov wrote in his blog on Sunday that a lot had built up at the Wagner boss that could have been solved in talks with Putin. However, Prigozhin no longer had access to the President. That’s why he went public. It remains to be seen whether Putin will draw any conclusions. “You can’t create a highly centralized system and then completely isolate yourself from the outside world,” said Galliamov. The Kremlin boss has a reputation for being resistant to advice and for having lost touch with reality.
The Presidential Office in Moscow and the Ministry of Defense have always rejected Prigozhin’s demands to increase the use of force in the war against Ukraine. Neither the imposition of martial law nor new mobilizations are planned, it was said again and again. The resources for the fight against Ukraine are sufficient. After the end of Prigozhin’s uprising, the Kremlin promptly announced that the situation had no effect on Russia’s war aims in Ukraine. Putin still stands by Defense Minister Shoigu. But the pressure remains.