After the uprisings, Russia is gradually returning to normal. But the eyes continue to focus on mercenary boss Prigozchin. Today he spoke again for the first time. How does it go from here?
The mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who fell out of favor in the Kremlin because of a rebellion against Moscow’s military leadership, should be at large in Belarus. The 62-year-old is speaking on his Telegram channel for the first time since Saturday. But Prigozhin leaves open where he is and where his troops are.
He emphasizes that he only wanted to vent his anger at the Ministry of Defense with the uprising, but not to seize power. The ministry tried to destroy Wagner. That’s why all this. He then stopped the march on Moscow to prevent bloodshed.
Danger is not banned
Meanwhile, the Russian authorities have been raiding Prigozhin’s headquarters in St. Petersburg for days, confiscating money and gold. The danger is not banned because basically a full-fledged army with tanks, helicopters and snipers could get out of control.
Authorities in the Russian regions demonstratively had posters torn down with which Prigozhin wanted to recruit fighters for his Wagner private army. The Wagner boss promised better leadership, more money and social benefits than the Ministry of Defense for deployment in the war zone in Ukraine. His anger at the ministry’s “incompetence” led to an open rebellion against Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov at the end of last week.
The concrete demands of his lightning uprising, including the later called off march towards Moscow, remained nebulous. But it should be clear that the extremely rich and influential boss of the mercenary troupe did not want to be beaten up by Shoigu. The Wagner troupe rendered many services to the Kremlin, in Africa, the Middle East and especially in the Ukraine. To Prigozhin’s annoyance, Shoigu had ordered all of the approximately 40 volunteer units, including Wagner, to be placed under the command of the Ministry of Defense by July 1—that is, by Saturday.
Prigozhin categorically rejects this, as he stressed again in his voice message on Monday. He therefore relied on a violent solution to his ongoing conflict – and failed.
Ministry of Defense shows Shoigu in a video
While Prigozhin’s whereabouts remain unclear, the Russian Defense Ministry released at least one video on Monday showing Shoigu in uniform. It is unclear when the video was taken. Nothing is heard from Shoigu – or from Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, who described the masterminds of the uprising as “traitors” on Saturday – and thus publicly broke with Prigozhin, who was his confidante for a long time. Putin also stated that he had ordered the Russian armed forces to bring the insurgents to their “inevitable punishment”.
When the Wagner troops withdrew from the occupied military buildings in Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia after negotiations, the Kremlin surprisingly announced on Saturday evening that the criminal proceedings against Prigozhin and his fighters would be discontinued. Many commentators were surprised at Putin’s leniency, given his reputation for making short work of traitors. So there was talk of a weakening, of the president losing control and power. However, Russian media reported on Monday that the investigation into Prigozhin had not yet been terminated.
While Moscow’s state media once again saw the hand of Western secret services behind the revolt – with the aim of destabilizing the situation in Russia – independent media asked again how it was possible that the domestic secret service FSB knew nothing about Prigozhin’s plans – or whether he was aware of it and remained inactive. It was also discussed why the armed forces did not resolutely oppose the Wagner fighters.
Morale in the Russian army is considered to be badly damaged
It is clear that Shoigu’s army in Ukraine is largely tied up in a war that has been chaotic for Russia. But military bloggers also pointed out that parts of the army may have been passive, awaiting the outcome of the conflict. The morale of the Russian soldiers is considered to be badly damaged because of the many defeats in the war. Prigozhin had called for more Russian action to resist the Ukrainian counter-offensive. He repeatedly warned of defeat in war.
The fact that no one seriously opposed Prigozhin should give not only Minister Shoigu but also Putin food for thought. It’s obvious that the Kremlin chief’s monopoly on the use of force is cracking. Above all, it once again became clear that the time when Putin was considered a guarantor of stability for the second largest nuclear power after the USA is over. After more than 23 years in power, the 70-year-old is now considered to be weakened and apparently can hardly balance the various interest groups – even if he won this unprecedented power struggle for the time being.
According to the Kremlin, parts of the Wagner troops are now to be integrated into the Defense Ministry, while the damage caused by their tanks to roads and buildings in the regions is being repaired and the dead of the uprising are being buried. But many questions remain unanswered – for example, about the future of Prigozhin’s secret military camps, where his fighters could entrench themselves. The Russian parliament is working on regulating the work of private military companies.
Experts at the US Institute for War Studies ISW also interpret such initiatives as a wish on the part of the Russian leadership to continue using mercenaries like Wagner in international conflicts. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already announced that Moscow will maintain its military presence in Africa – which Wagner mercenaries have been exercising for years.
Wagner boss between calls to kill and life in Belarus
But the eyes were primarily on Prigozhin himself – quite a few, like Duma deputy Andrei Gurulev, demanded his death. “A bullet in the forehead is the only salvation for Prigozhin,” he said. “I firmly believe that in time of war one must destroy traitors.” Many in the elite now see themselves betrayed by one of their own. Prigozhin, with his ultra-right and nationalist views, was part of Putin’s power base, which could now be crumbling.
And the Wagner boss himself felt disappointed because Putin didn’t heed his calls for a more determined effort in the war. Political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya said that Prigozhin himself had no intention of seizing power with the revolt. Rather, he acted out of desperation because he feared for Wagner’s existence as a result of the Defense Ministry’s access to the structures of the private armies. Prigozhin confirms this with his new statement.
Prigozhin wanted Putin’s attention – and money, security and comfortable conditions for his work. “You don’t go out with such demands to overthrow the government,” Stanovaya said. Prigozhin failed with his plan, realized that and therefore gave up. “Putin was able to assure him that he would spare his life if Prigozhin sat quietly in Belarus.”