analysis
Losses in Bavaria, gains in Hesse: The results of the election winners Söder and Rhein couldn’t be more different. But the Union sees itself strengthened overall. CDU boss Merz can still only be partially satisfied.
In the Konrad-Adenauer-Haus there is a party mood in the evening. CDU General Secretary Linnemann speaks of a “sensational result” and also sees it as confirmation of his Union’s opposition policy. The migration issue is all-encompassing and the traffic lights are not delivering, is the tenor.
He also dealt several times against Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD). She campaigned instead of dealing with the issue. Of course, Boris Rhein in particular focused on the right topics in Hesse. The election campaign there is a model for the federal election campaign.
Victory of the Union or defeat of the traffic lights?
The strongest force in two federal states, in Hesse with strong growth, in Bavaria with slight losses, and yet the question remains to what extent the results can be interpreted as a victory for the Union or as a defeat for the traffic lights. One thing is clear: the issues of migration, the economy and energy were important to voters – all issues with which the traffic light parties are criticized and cannot score points.
For Söder’s CSU, it looks like he will continue with the Free Voters, with whom he would like to start talks as soon as possible about a continuation of the two-party coalition. Other constellations seem unlikely in Bavaria; he has already stylized the Greens as political opponents several times.
The situation is completely different in Hesse, where Rhine has now offered coalition talks to both the SPD and FDP as well as the previous coalition partner, the Greens. According to projections, the black-green coalition would still have enough votes for a majority capable of governing.
No success for Merz
Markus Söder’s potential ambitions to run for chancellor are unlikely to receive any boost with this result. The AfD’s success is also due to the CSU’s losses: in Bavaria, 100,000 voters migrated from the Christian Socialists to the far right. The AfD was able to achieve the largest gain of all parties in Bavaria and for the CSU party leader and top candidate Markus Söder, these numbers are no glory.
Even CDU party leader Friedrich Merz, who worked hard for both prime ministers and wanted to make the election a vote on the traffic lights, cannot console himself about the AfD’s good performance, especially in Hesse. With regard to the chancellor question, he can be sure that the success of his party friend Rhein has at least nothing to do with him. In a survey by Infratest dimap, only 32 percent of voters said: “Friedrich Merz would be a good chancellor.”
Tailwind for federal politics?
It is above all the poor performance of the traffic light parties that allows the Union to emerge stronger from both state elections. Secretary General Linnemann is sure that protest voters can be brought back if “illegal migration” is curbed. The party now wants to push forward the so-called “Germany Pact” between the federal government, the states and the opposition.
It is “high time for talks to begin,” said deputy party leader Karin Prien in the evening at party headquarters. A traffic light government at the mercy of the Union. If the CDU has its way, the state elections could be the beginning of the return to the chancellor’s office, even if the two party leaders do not have the greatest share in the success.