Satellite images predict a loss of a third of wheat crops in Ukraine
The yield of the next wheat harvest in Ukraine is expected to fall by at least 35% compared to 2021 due to the Russian invasion, according to satellite images analyzed by the geolocation company Kayrros in a note published on Friday.
The conflict has severely disrupted the planting season, which is underway, and forced farmers to work under bombs, with fuel hard to find. At satellite height, the difference compared to the usual seasons is already visible, corroborating the analysts’ predictions.
The images were recorded between April 14 and 22, just under two months after Russia invaded the country, by NASA’s Terra satellite. Kayrros relied on the so-called method of “the normalized difference vegetation index”a precision infrared analysis that assesses the state of plants and thus predicts cereal production.
At this stage, Ukraine would be able to produce 21 million tonnes of wheat in 2022, 12 million less than in 2021, estimates Kayrros.
“As fighting continues and much of the country’s wheat production comes from areas of eastern Ukraine, where the conflict is most intense, actual production figures are likely to be lower. »warn analysts.
Farmers who manage to sow will in any case face a storage problem, as exports by rail and road can only compensate for a minimal part of the departures of goods by boat. Russia maintains its blockade of Ukrainian ports, both on the Black Sea and on that of Azov, severely hampering trade.