Predictions are only worth anything when they come true. In this respect, it can New York Times Congratulations now: Last week the newspaper reported, with reference to American intelligence information, that North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-un will meet with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin this week on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok to discuss possible arms deliveries for Putin’s war of aggression in Ukraine to talk. And this Monday it turned out: Kim Jong-un is actually traveling to Russia.
The South Korean News Agency Yonhap reported on Monday that a special armored train had set off towards Russia in Pyongyang. “The intelligence services believe that the train in which Kim Jong-un is believed to be traveling is headed to Vladivostok,” quoted Yonhap a government official. Soon afterwards, the government in Moscow confirmed that Kim would come to Russia “in the coming days” at Putin’s invitation. And finally, news came from North Korea that Kim Jong-un was traveling outside his country for the first time in four and a half years. State news agency KCNA reported that Kim would visit Russia “soon.” Kim Jong-un made his last trip abroad for the time being in April 2019. Back then, too, he met Putin in Vladivostok.
Putin needs grenades and anti-tank ammunition
Moscow and Pyongyang kept information about the meeting between the two authoritarian statesmen very tight. There were no details about topics and processes. KCNA only reported that Kim would “meet and talk to comrade Putin during the visit.” But one can probably assume that the two will actually meet on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum. Russian media have reported that Putin will be there. Vladivostok is about 680 kilometers from Pyongyang and is quite easy to reach by train. And because the forum lasts until Wednesday, the conversation between Putin and Kim will probably take place in the next two days.
What will they talk about? An official answer to this question will only be given after the meeting. But after the intelligence information from the New York Times were already correct about Kim’s departure, they shouldn’t be wrong about the content either. Accordingly, it’s about supplying weapons for Russia’s war in Ukraine: Putin wants artillery shells and anti-tank ammunition from Kim. Kim, in turn, wants Russian technology for satellites and nuclear submarines as well as food aid. Putin may also have use for North Korean workers. War and mobilization cost manpower, and the hasty departure of hundreds of thousands of Russians has exacerbated the labor shortage. North Korea could help with cheap people.
In addition, Kim and Putin probably want to take a stand against the efforts of the USA and the United Nations to isolate their countries. If they help each other, they would, as sanctioned parties, undermine the sanctions of the UN Security Council. The message would be: There are no rules for us. However, Putin and Kim will also have to consider some larger contexts in their negotiations. They must not antagonize their big partner, China.
“North Korea can ask whatever it wants, including Russian technology to develop a nuclear-powered submarine, but it is not in Russia’s interest to supply that technology,” said Kim Sung-soo, a political scientist at Hanyang University in the US Korea Times“because that would almost certainly provoke a hostile response from Beijing and prompt Japan to consider developing nuclear weapons.”
In the West people tried to remain calm. US Vice President Kamala Harris said on CBS that Moscow’s rapprochement with Pyongyang showed Russia’s desperation. A possible arms deal would “further isolate” both of them. And South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol set an example for Kiev at the G-20 summit in Delhi. He promised Ukraine additional aid worth the equivalent of 2.1 billion euros.