“Finally ! » Ukrainians and their allies celebrate the adoption in the United States of $60.8 billion in aid to Ukraine on Saturday, after months of blockage. On the ground, the Ukrainian forces no longer hide their difficulties, strangled by delays in the delivery of Western aid. Week after week, the Russians, more numerous and less limited in terms of ammunition, are nibbling ground in the east of the country.
In this difficult context and while Moscow still occupies 20% of Ukrainian territory, this aid is “essential” for kyiv, underlines Michel Goya, former colonel of the marine troops, historian and strategist, who assures that it will make it possible to “rebalance the balance of power “. “It’s vital for Ukraine,” adds Cédric Mas, military historian and specialist in the conflict. The rearmament effort is largely insufficient for the moment: Europe had promised a million shells this year, it is well below for the moment. Faced with the slowness of European mobilization, American aid is therefore essential. »
A plump but “insufficient” envelope
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was quick to welcome this package which, according to him, “will save thousands of lives”. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States had until now promised 74 billion in aid to kyiv. “This envelope is almost as much as what has already been given by the United States. Its very important. For comparison, it is as if, in France, the National Assembly had voted for aid worth nine billion, including six billion for Ukraine,” illustrates Michel Goya.
But if Joe Biden felt that the American Congress lived up to “History”, these billions could however prove to be largely insufficient. Carole Grimaud invites us to look in more detail at the distribution of this funding. “Part of the funds will be used to resupply the American army” with equipment already sent to Ukraine, notes the expert at the Geneva Geostrategic Observatory. For the founder of the Center for Research on Russia and Eastern Europe (Creer), “this aid is [donc] essential, urgent but it will not be enough to recover the sovereignty of the territories.”
“Save blood”
Especially since the Ukrainian army was exhausted while waiting for this aid. The last US delivery promise dates back to December 2022 and the last actual deliveries of October 2023. “Better late than too late,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, unconditional supporter of kyiv, before adding “I hope it is not too late for Ukraine.” Because, since October, kyiv has resisted without resupply. “The Ukrainian forces are compensating for the absence of new tanks, cannons and ammunition by the loss of their men,” grumbles Cédric Mas, who recalls that military equipment “saves blood.”
However, an extension could follow. “Congress is passing another law that will confiscate Russian assets in the United States and send them to Ukraine. This would add six billion in aid,” explains Carole Grimaud. But “what the United States provides is the minimum to hold the line,” says Michel Goya. “It would probably take double this effort to give a decisive advantage to the Ukrainian army,” he slips, adding that the outcome of a conflict is however not only a question of financial means but also of “human mobilization” or even “reorganization of forces”.
An exponential “bill”
“This sum should be sent to kyiv every year,” believes, for his part, Cédric Mas. “And the longer we wait, the more money will be needed to help Ukraine break the deadlock. The final bill increases every day,” analyzes the military historian, who cites human losses and worsening problems. “It is more and more expensive in terms of lives, effort and money, on both sides of the conflict,” adds Michel Goya. But as the presidential election looms in the United States, “there is enormous uncertainty over the monitoring of American aid,” recalls Carole Grimaud.
Donald Trump and Republicans in general are reluctant to sign checks to combat the stagnation of the conflict. However, to win the war, the Ukrainians above all need “regularity”, believes Cédric Mas. “There are constant arrhythmias in aid, with months of large deliveries and months of nothing. With consistency, the Ukrainians could plan their military actions,” he emphasizes. More than a precise amount, kyiv would therefore need a regularity that national and international politics continue to refuse it.