Israel’s dilemma: “The longer the war lasts, the better for Hamas”

Hamas in northern Gaza is weakened and yet it is likely to benefit from a long war, says Middle East expert Peter Lintl. Since the majority of the armed people are in the south, the fighting would probably spread there too.

tagesschau.de: There are fears that fighting between Israeli troops and Hamas will also spread to the south of the Gaza Strip. How does this happen?

Peter Lintl: Certainly some Hamas terrorists fled to the south with the civilians. That is perfectly clear. But above all, not all of the armed Hamas is in the north of the Gaza Strip. So far, only two of Hamas’ five brigades are there. These are almost smashed.

But the rest is in the south. Israel also knows this, and it is therefore completely clear: If Israel wants to continue pursuing its stated goal of destroying Hamas, this fight will also have to shift to the south, even if, according to everything we know, Hamas’ main infrastructure is in Gaza City was.

Hamas is clearly weakened and its operational capabilities are significantly limited. It is estimated that between 2,000 and 3,000 Hamas fighters died. The Israeli army, on the other hand, has recorded surprisingly few deaths, I think there are around 50 so far – in any case very, very few compared to the number of Hamas terrorists killed.

“International Pressure on Israel will increase”

tagesschau.de: Did Hamas expect Israel to respond this harshly? Did she miscalculate?

Lintl: I’m not sure if Hamas miscalculated. Hamas officials are all currently saying that the Palestinian people are ready to pay this toll. At least you insinuate that this was all a long-term plan. It is of course unclear whether this is just war rhetoric.

But I think Hamas must have realized that the deliberate brutality of its attack, with the massacres and the trauma that it caused, would provoke such a reaction. It was clear to me on October 7th that Israel would have no other option than to declare the goal of destroying Hamas. And I think Hamas knew that too.

Of course, some of Hamas’s hopes have not been fulfilled. She wanted there to be a multi-front war. She has tried to incite the situation in the West Bank even more. And of course she hoped that Hezbollah would get involved. That didn’t come true.

But the sentence “The longer this war lasts, the better for Hamas” is still true, because now the more dead Palestinian civilians there will be, the more international pressure on Israel will increase. And Hamas certainly took that into account.

“Hamas is ready, a lot of them Palestinian to sacrifice civilians”

tagesschau.de: Will Israel soon have to give in to international pressure and pause the fighting or change its tactics?

Lintl: Hamas’ goal is to present itself as the great leading power in the fight against Israel; she wants to show that Israel is not invulnerable militarily; and she wants the “Palestinian cause” to be back on the table. And for this it is prepared to sacrifice very, very many Palestinian civilians.

Of course, the Israeli army knows that it is a matter of time before this puts too much pressure on Israel. The Israeli army speaks of the window of legitimacy. How long does the international community, especially the West and the USA, give Israel time to act here? All sides know that it is only a matter of time.

The “Window of Legitimacy”

tagesschau.de: And when will this window of legitimacy finally close?

Lintl: This terminology used by the Army comes from previous rounds of war. But this time the conditions are different because the brutality of the Hamas attack is simply different. That’s why Israel will get more time from the USA. That is why the Israelis may also resist international pressure more strongly.

Nevertheless, it is unclear what period we are still talking about. Israel’s foreign minister says Israel still has two weeks to operate. The Defense Minister speaks of months that they still need. These are glaring differences.

But what we will see in any case are longer ceasefires. No ceasefire, but longer ceasefires, otherwise the humanitarian situation in Gaza will spiral out of control. Joe Biden is already pushing for these ceasefires to come.

“Important to eliminate the heads of Hamas”

tagesschau.de: Will Israel even be able to defeat Hamas militarily in the Gaza Strip?

Lintl: Israel needs to define its military goals more precisely. 20,000 to 40,000 people are said to belong militarily to Hamas. It is impossible to identify all of them – all civilians would somehow have to be checked individually. There is a danger in this.

And how many and which of the Hamas structures should be dismantled? It is certainly important for Israel to eliminate the heads of Hamas. Without eliminating the leading figures, it will be very difficult to sell this war as a profit. Where they are is currently unclear, no one knows. But it can succeed.

“Then the legitimacy really disappears”

tagesschau.de: The Israeli army continues to search the Al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip. What does it mean for Israel if the Israeli army cannot find a Hamas command center there?

Lintl: We don’t yet know what else will be found. I don’t think the last word has been spoken yet. But if the command center, which both the Israeli and US secret services are talking about, is not located underneath, the pressure on Israel will increase.

Then that window of legitimacy will close much more quickly. Then the legitimacy of Israel’s military action really disappears; after all, taking action against a hospital is very symbolic. But: It may well be that this Hamas headquarters can still be found here.

“Situation in the West Bank can escalate quickly”

tagesschau.de: They mentioned Hamas’ goal of a multi-front war. Should we continue to expect an expansion of the war?

Lintl: In the north, it looks as if Hezbollah will continue to fight at current levels for the time being. It involves Israel in hostilities, but does not really want to become a party to the war. But that can always change by chance. The moment a rocket comes off and falls on an Israeli hospital or residential building, Israel must react. And so the situation has changed quickly and Hezbollah will become a party to the war.

The situation in the West Bank is more sensitive and confusing. There is a complex situation in which various actors play a role: the supporters of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who are increasingly being arrested by the Israeli army; the Israeli army; small groups of radical settlers who are further heating up the situation, who are provoking. And the mood among the Palestinian population is becoming increasingly charged.

A lot depends on how well the Palestinian Authority, which is in a quandary, can keep the situation under control, both in terms of security and politics. This can quickly change. This is partly due to the situation in the Gaza Strip, but also due to other factors. If a single actor manages to carry out a major attack, the situation in the West Bank can escalate very quickly.

The worst case scenario would be if parts of the PA’s security apparatus switched sides and fought against Israel. That is not the case so far and that is positive. It must be emphasized again and again how important the autonomous authority is at the moment in order to calm the situation. Although for many she has not criticized the Hamas attacks enough, she is playing a very, very important role in keeping the situation in the West Bank stable. But she is under massive pressure.

“No Two-state solution with this Israeli government”

tagesschau.de: “Politico” recently published a proposal from the German government to set up a UN-led administration in the Gaza Strip. What do you think of that?

Lintl: It is a plan with many, many hurdles. This requires a mandate from the Security Council. The chances of success for this are unclear. But above all, there is a need for a political vision for the post-UN administration period. A simple handover to the Palestinian Authority is currently not conceivable. It has too little support within Palestinian society. It needs more legitimacy. She won’t get it without new elections.

Above all, it needs a real political vision for the two-state solution. And that cannot be done with the current Israeli government. There are declared opponents of a two-state solution in this government. With this government there will be no political horizon for the Palestinians.

But it has now become clear to many people in Israel and elsewhere that the previous conflict management strategy has failed. And I believe that is the opportunity that is currently available. The Israeli government is extremely unpopular in society, especially because Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is blamed for the war. It was Netanyahu’s strategy to strengthen Hamas in order to weaken the Palestinian Authority. The settlers’ supporters in the government are also viewed more and more critically.

This means that there may well be new elections in Israel after this war, even if Netanyahu will do everything to prevent them. But that would be the necessary condition so that a different horizon can be created – perhaps also for the German government’s proposal.

The interview was conducted by Christoph Schwanitz, tagesschau.de