Israel and Hamas before Gaza offensive: “Potential for humanitarian catastrophe”

According to Middle East expert Peter Lintl, an evacuation of the northern Gaza Strip can hardly be organized. Hamas perfidiously takes into account the suffering and deaths of many Palestinians. Israel, on the other hand, lacks an exit strategy.

tagesschau.de: The Israeli army has called on the population of the northern Gaza Strip to leave the area within 24 hours. According to the UN, this affects around 1.1 million people. Is it even possible to leave the area, go south and find refuge there in such a short time?

Peter Lintl: Unless we’re talking about a head-over-heels escape, it’s hardly possible to handle it in a logistically sensible way. The question is also, where should the refugees go? Egypt has not yet opened its borders and has said it will only accept 2,000 refugees per day.

There are already reports that Hamas is holding back refugees because it has an interest in increasing the number of civilians in the area. You will see a movement of refugees, but it is hardly conceivable that more than a million people can actually be evacuated in a meaningful way.

“Potential for a humanitarian catastrophe”

tagesschau.de: The UN also sees it this way and predicts devastating humanitarian consequences.

Lintl: The Israeli army’s likely ground deployment has the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe. There are only a few points of contact for refugees in the south. There are the schools run by the UN relief organization UNRWA, but they are already very full.

The Israeli army says the refugees should go to fields or try to cross the Gaza River in the south of the Gaza Strip and, if necessary, the border. But there are no reception centers where people can go.

“We are probably on the verge of a ground invasion”

tagesschau.de: Can we read something militarily from Israel’s request? Is a broad attack now imminent?

Lintl: It has already become clear in the past few days that after these monstrous terrorist attacks, Israel seems to have no other option than to destroy Hamas’ rule in the Gaza Strip. This announcement now indicates that.

We are probably on the verge of a ground invasion, which will certainly be accompanied by very massive and unprecedented air strikes, as we have already seen in the past few days. The Israeli army appears to be planning to eliminate any Hamas terrorists who remain in the area. The plan is apparently to search every house for them.

“The longer this war lasts, the better for Hamas”

tagesschau.de: Gaza City is densely built up. Is this even conceivable without major losses on the Israeli side?

Lintl: Certainly not. If this strategy is carried out this way, there will be thousands, perhaps even tens of thousands of deaths. The perversity of this scenario is that the longer this war lasts, the better it is for Hamas. The more soldiers the Israeli army loses, the greater the social pressure at home will become.

At the same time, the more dead Palestinians we see, the more international pressure on Israel will increase. This means that Hamas also gains in dead Palestinians. This is their perfidious calculation and also the danger for Israel.

“Hamas believes it can emerge victorious”

tagesschau.de: Do you share the impression that this is exactly what Hamas was aiming for throughout the long preparation of its terrorist attack?

Lintl: It seems that Hamas wanted to provoke an Israeli reaction with its terrorist attack and seems to believe that it can withstand an attack and even emerge victorious in some way – as a moral victor in the Arab world, as a victor in the Arab world Pictures.

We will certainly see a flood of misinformation soon, and it appears that this was part of Hamas’ plan.

“The goal is shared by the entire Israeli society”

tagesschau.de: Can Israel respond other than harshly to an unprecedented attack that has resulted in the largest number of Jewish victims in one day since the Holocaust?

Lintl: It was clear to me from the start that after this barbaric terrorist attack, Israel has little choice but to ensure that such an attack does not happen again. I believe this goal is shared by all of Israeli society and politics. To do this you have to break Hamas rule.

But if you break this down to military capabilities and rationalities, it is not clear whether and how this can succeed. Some Israeli military experts have pointed out that it is not clear what the exact plan is and whether there is an exit strategy. So what goals must be achieved for Israel to leave the Gaza Strip? Without such a plan, Israel risks losing itself in an endless battle.

“Israeli politics heavily criticized”

tagesschau.de: Is this also due to the shortness of time and the fact that the army and politicians were not prepared for such an attack?

Lintl: It is in the nature of things that you have to react quickly in some way. There are still 100 to 150 hostages held by Hamas.

The fact that you weren’t prepared is another aspect. This is currently being discussed in Israeli society. Why didn’t the secret services know about this attack? Why was the Israeli military not prepared enough?

Israeli politics is also heavily criticized. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s poll numbers have plummeted. That means he is clearly blamed.

“The hostages are an enormous bargaining chip”

tagesschau.de: This also means that the prospects for the hostages are extremely poor.

Lintl: The hostages are an enormous bargaining chip for Hamas, which they will use to gain media coverage if necessary. She has already announced that she will execute hostages and that will once again create dramatic images.

Israel is now likely to try to free hostages using special operations. This may be possible with some, but certainly not with all. A second possibility is that there are negotiations about a prisoner exchange through third parties. This is where Qatar came into play. Germany has also successfully mediated several times in the past.

One scenario could be that old people, children and women are exchanged for Hamas prisoners in Israel or that Israel turns on electricity and water for a longer period of time in order to be released. This is an Israeli bargaining chip that it will probably use. But we have to expect that many hostages will simply be murdered.

Four scenarios for the period after the war

tagesschau.de: I’ll take up your concept of the exit strategy – what scenarios do you see for an end to the military operation and for the period afterwards?

Lintl: The central question is what happens afterwards – and that cannot currently be answered well or not with a good scenario. I think four scenarios are possible. The first would be: Israel succeeds in destroying Hamas rule, then withdraws from the Gaza Strip, leaving it to local warlords. The Gaza Strip would then become a combat zone.

The second scenario: Israel militarily occupies the Gaza Strip without the involvement of the autonomous authority, as was the case before the Oslo Agreement of 1995. This would lead to a permanent confrontation between the Israeli military and the residents or fighters there.

Israel could also try to bring the Palestinian Authority back into the Gaza Strip. This presents its own difficulties because the Palestinian Authority is already viewed very critically by the population in the West Bank and is particularly criticized for its security cooperation with Israel as an accomplice of the occupation. So if Israel installed an autonomous authority in the Gaza Strip, it would certainly not have much legitimacy there. Another possibility would be to establish the autonomous authority in the Gaza Strip with the help of international partners, including the Arab states and the West. But that is very theoretical.

It is equally unlikely or promising to establish an international administration in the Gaza Strip, perhaps by Arab states. But I don’t see any state that would be willing to do that. That’s why there isn’t currently a very good answer to the question of what comes next.

“It will be difficult to improve the humanitarian situation”

tagesschau.de: These are bleak prospects that sound above all like hopelessness.

Lintl: It’s a hopeless situation. At the moment you can only try to create humanitarian corridors, you can try to talk to Egypt so that the country takes in more refugees. The country certainly wants to get money for this.

It’s about somehow improving the humanitarian situation. But that will be very, very difficult in the coming weeks.

The interview was conducted by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de