Is there a shift to the right in the parliamentary elections in Portugal?

The Portuguese are electing a new parliament today. The established parties have to expect tough competition from the right: The “Chega” party is likely to score particularly well with young voters. Because there is great dissatisfaction in the country.

Portugal is experiencing stormy times. In keeping with the political situation, the heaviest snowfall since 2018 has fallen in parts of the country in recent days. Strong gusts of wind repeatedly whipped rain through the streets of the capital Lisbon.

The mood is depressed. Despite good economic data, the upswing is not reaching many people: salaries are comparatively low, making living space almost unaffordable for many people. The public education and healthcare systems are in deep crisis. The two major parties, the social democratic PS and the conservative PSD, are struggling.

Disappointment and distrust

Both the Socialist Party and the conservative PSD, which have alternated as the strongest force for decades, are also confronted with allegations of corruption and nepotism. Although they are likely to share the lion’s share of the almost eleven million potential votes among themselves in this election, the right-wing far-right party “Chega” (in German: “It’s enough!”) can have legitimate hopes, clearly reflecting the dissatisfaction in the country and the public to profit from outrage.

Surveys put the party, founded in 2019, in third place; compared to the 2022 election, it could more than double its result, possibly reaching 16 percent instead of seven.

The conservative opposition leader Luis Montenegro, who has legitimate hopes of becoming the strongest force with his center-right electoral alliance – albeit without his own government majority – has repeatedly ruled out working with “Chega”. But the party might be hard to ignore and sees itself as a future kingmaker.

“Portugal needs a cleansing”

The party’s strategy is simple: loud, simple messages. “Chega” boss André Ventura likes to provoke. Anyone driving through Portugal these weeks will see huge, well-placed posters in every town that show the “Chega” frontman, behind them the heads of other top politicians, painted out in red, and the slogan that Portugal needs a “cleanse” – that “Chega” should definitely be understood as a threat.

The party presents itself as the clean-up party, political intelligence is always the political intelligence of others: against elitism, against the establishment and recently also against immigration – the latter topic is linked by “Chega” to crime.

Playing with prejudices

For years, Ventura has also specifically addressed some very old resentments. In spring 2020, at the height of the first Corona wave in Portugal, he called for Sinti and Roma to be locked up in a kind of forced camp. The supposedly unusually high spread of the virus in this population group should not spread to others.

Political scientist Isabel David from the University of Lisbon is not surprised that the right-wing populist chose this minority as a target. Prejudices against Sinti and Roma are still widespread in the Portuguese majority society. In contrast to racist attitudes towards other groups, for example from African countries south of the Sahara, almost no one in Portugal keeps it quiet.

In a nod to the superstitions of older Sinti and Roma in particular, businessmen would place frog figures in front of their shops or in their shop windows to discourage Sinti and Roma from entering their shops. There is also the idea that Sinti and Roma are shy about work and isolate themselves. All of these prejudices are also very old. “Chega” boss Ventura uses this very specifically.

Valve for protest voters

However, anyone who speaks to young “Chega” supporters quickly realizes that their main concern is not to finally be able to express derogatory comments about others without inhibition. The Socialist Party did not pursue left-wing policies during its sole government under the leadership of Prime Minister António Costa, who has since resigned: it promised a lot but delivered little of it. That’s what many people in Portugal think.

Young people in particular increasingly see no prospects for themselves in their home country. This seems to be what concerns Chega supporter Pedro Santiago, for example. The young people went abroad; they wanted “a chance,” he tells us: “We want our country. We want our Portuguese identity back. And that’s why I’m voting.”

Highest Emigration rate in Europe

It’s not a perceived exodus. The latest edition of the Emigration Observatory’s Portuguese “Emigration Atlas” finds that in fact around a third of young people aged between 15 and 39 born in Portugal are currently living abroad – more than 850,000 people. Well-educated people in particular look for happiness elsewhere; many do not return.

No other European country has such a high emigration rate. In a global comparison, small Portugal is in 8th place, and there is no trend reversal in sight. The result: Portuguese society is getting older and it has one of the lowest birth rates in the European Union.

“Chega” boss André Ventura also has a story for people like Pedro. The Portuguese have voted for the same parties for 50 years and nothing has changed.

“Shot yourself in the foot”

Fifty years ago, Vasco Lourenço was part of the group of military members who launched Portugal’s “Carnation Revolution” on April 25, 1974, the peaceful coup that ended the dictatorship. The now 81-year-old is the chairman of the “April 25th Association”. He says: The democratic forces – right and left of center – have made enormous mistakes and “shot themselves in the foot.” This is not a purely Portuguese phenomenon, as the “non-democratic right” is also “on the rise” in numerous European countries.

He’s not too worried yet, says Vasco Lourenço with the calmness of someone who once helped bring down a dictatorship and has been campaigning for democratic values ​​ever since. The “April 25th Association” is politically neutral, but not ideologically neutral: “We defend freedom and democracy and are therefore against everything that is directed against freedom, democracy and social justice.” The association therefore maintains relationships with all political parties except “Chega”, from its point of view a “collection basin for good-for-nothing”.

The democratic forces must resist this development, says Vasco Lourenço and adds: “Those who defend democracy must not be afraid to defend democracy.”