Mobilization from the age of 25, recruitment campaign in prison, increased sanctions for those who resist… Between April and May, Ukrainian legislation on mobilization tightened considerably.
As the Russians storm the Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s parliament, the Rada, has adopted several measures in hopes of resupplying the front. Urgent adjustments as Moscow reaped its biggest territorial victories since the end of 2022 during an offensive on the Kharkiv region, launched against a depleted Ukrainian army.
“This mobilization comes too late,” reacts General Vincent Desportes. The former director of the War School adds that it “is not at all obvious that this effort is enough” on the ground when the Russians have recovered nearly 260 km² in one week. “The Ukrainians only have 87 infantry or battle brigades, these units which go into contact. And, in one year, they only trained seven new ones,” illustrates Michel Goya, former colonel of the marine troops, historian and strategist.
A mobilization of “Tanguy”
The training of these new recruits is at the heart of the problem. “Even for a simple soldier, if we want serious training, it takes several weeks,” explains Michel Goya, for whom these strong forces will only be felt on the ground in “several months”. These “tough but necessary” legislative changes, in the words of the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken, therefore come late.
Ukraine proved “reluctant to commit its forces” to the battle, notes Vincent Desportes. “At the height of the First World War, France mobilized between 5 and 6 million people [pour une population analogue à celle de l’Ukraine au début de la guerre] compared to around 1 million in Ukraine. kyiv’s mobilization effort is not at all up to what France had undertaken in the face of a mortal threat,” notes the former general.
And while most countries in the world engage their youth in combat in the event of armed conflict, Ukraine has chosen to preserve them. “I don’t know of any other historical examples where a country has chosen to only mobilize from the age of 27, it’s completely unprecedented. In Gaza, the average age of Israeli soldiers killed is 20 years old! », underlines Michel Goya.
Ukraine still “potentially has room”
After the First World War, France experienced a considerable demographic shock, a entire generation of young men who perished on the front. kyiv “wanted to avoid that”, explains Vincent Desportes who recalls that Ukraine is a “rather aging” society, which explains this political desire to “preserve the future”. But “this preservation of youth is relatively unconventional while the country is in a war described as existential,” underlines Michel Goya.
“A country should be able to put 5% of its population in uniform, at most. In Ukraine, it is between 2 and 3%,” explains the historian, for whom there remains “potentially some margin.” Ukraine therefore had to stop tacking. But, even in a straight line, the country will be faced with a shortage of men. With a population of 38 million people in 2022, Ukraine acts as a demographic dwarf compared to Russia and its 144 million people. Whatever the political choices, “Russian mobilization capacity remains enormous while that of Ukraine remains weak. The Russians do not want to mobilize but they can,” notes Vincent Desportes.
Our file on the War in Ukraine
At the end of April, the American Congress finally voted in aid of nearly $61 billion for kyiv at the end of April. Between equipment and training of these new recruits, this aid will give a breath of fresh air to the Ukrainians while the blockage of American aid, which lasted several months, “has cost a lot in human lives,” analyzes Michel Goya. But, even with renewed equipment and Made in USA training, “in the end, war is chest to chest,” notes Vincent Desportes. Because, as the former general reminds us, “it is the men who advance and hold the positions, not the drones”.