Before a ministerial reshuffle, or even a change of government, the questions are always the same: Who and where? We might also ask why now? Before Elisabeth Borne’s departure on Monday, in Macronie and among political observers, two schools clashed. The offensive ones, who considered it was now or never. And the cautious ones, who thought it would be better to wait until next summer.
By changing government this January, Emmanuel Macron therefore chose the offensive option. At least to try – for the umpteenth time – to relaunch a second five-year term which never really got off the ground. “It’s clear that he has to try something,” recognizes political scientist Bruno Cautres. But if it’s to add complexity to the complex for the sake of it… This something has to have meaning. »
We will have understood: he is rather among the cautious. Particularly because of the European elections next June. There are certainly six months left, and the campaign will not begin until May, after the bridges. Implied: water will flow between now and then.
But to date, the polls say this: the National Rally, which is hovering around 30%, is around ten points ahead of a Macronist list which is struggling to pass 20%. “Something tells me that changing the head of the executive to win elections which are in any case very difficult for the power in place seems to me doomed to failure,” judges Bruno Cautres. The RN won the last two European elections. There is a structural dimension to this. »
Plume
There is still a bit of panache in taking on a difficult election in this way, with around ten points behind the starting line, by changing one’s political approach so significantly. But is it realistic? “Presenting it as a brilliant idea, changing the head of the executive, is PR. I’m not sure that it permeates the depths of the country,” quips the political scientist. In other words, it’s going “all in” with a slightly weak hand. Because if what comes out of the polls on June 9 resembles the current polls, it will be a powerful failure for Emmanuel Macron, who has made Europe one of his business assets. He would then find himself with a new “combat”, “campaign” Prime Minister already badly burned by universal suffrage.
The day after the Europeans, there will still be the Olympic Games, the 49.3 budgets, and precisely 58% of Emmanuel Macron’s second term to face. It’s difficult to stay with an already burnt-out head of government, and difficult to change after less than six months. “It was Emmanuel Macron alone who got himself into something complicated. Thanking your Prime Minister after a bad electoral result is a classic. The rational choice would have been to wait. » Could he even? The rumor grew too much to ultimately back down. To give up on changing the government today would have been to take the risk of appearing undecided. Not good when you are precisely looking for a direction.