Iran attacks targets in the Pakistani part of Balochistan with missiles and kamikaze drones, Pakistan retaliates and bombs a village in the Iranian province of Sistan and Balochistan. Is there a risk of escalation between the two countries? And what does China have to do with the conflict? Answers to the most important questions.
What is the conflict about?
Iran and Pakistan have indeed attacked terrorist groups in their attacks on each other’s territory, but in both cases it is also about sending signals at home and abroad. Iran is at the center of several conflicts in the Middle East. Elections will take place on February 8th in the nuclear power Pakistan, which has been hit by terrorist attacks.
Tehran sent missiles and drones to the Pakistani border town of Panjgur on Tuesday to target the terrorist organization Jaish ul-Adl. In Islamabad, people have reacted sensitively to such actions since the US murder of Osama Bin Laden on Pakistani soil. The country’s powerful military does not want to appear easily vulnerable. So Pakistan hit back on Thursday and bombed a village near Saravan, an Iranian town in Sistan-Baluchestan that is also close to the Iranian border, to hit the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF). Their fighters are striving for independence for Balochistan.
Islamabad said the attack was based on “credible intelligence information” about “imminent large-scale terrorist activities” from across the border, where terrorists of Pakistani origin are finding refuge in Iran’s uncontrolled areas. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that while Iran respects Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the country will not compromise on its own security.
So governments want to de-escalate at the highest level, while at the same time sending the message that they are taking tough action against terrorists. Especially in the underdeveloped, partly lawless province of Balochistan.
What is the importance of the province of Balochistan and what problems arise there?
Balochistan is the largest province in Pakistan in terms of area, but it also extends far into Iran as Sistan-Baluchistan and borders Afghanistan in the north. The region is sparsely populated and the Baloch are organized into clans rather than feeling like they belong to a state. They are Sunnis, like most Pakistanis. They are a minority in Shiite-dominated Iran. The region is economically underdeveloped but rich in natural resources. Tehran repeatedly closes border crossings in the region, separating families and making travel complicated and dangerous.
However, the border, which is more than 900 kilometers long, is difficult to guard and the black market in Iranian oil is flourishing because sales are severely restricted by US sanctions.
Several terrorist organizations finance themselves through tolls or extortion; they also use the region to gather and regroup.
What role does China and the expansion of the new Silk Road play in Balochistan?
Beijing’s “Belt & Road” initiative also runs through the Pakistani part of Balochistan, which is why China, which also sees itself as an ally of Iran, is also affected and has offered to mediate between Tehran and Islamabad. Given its chronic hostility with India, Pakistan has become increasingly closely tied to China over the years. Beijing promises political support, it pays loans and, above all, invests heavily in a trade route that runs through Pakistani territory to the coast in Balochistan. There is the deep-sea port of Gwadar, which opens the gateway to the Indian Ocean for Beijing.
Protests broke out in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad after the Iranian attack.
(Photo: Farooq Naeem/AFP)
But this also increases the dangers for Chinese nationals who work along this route. Suspected rebels from Balochistan such as the “Balochistan Liberation Front” have repeatedly carried out attacks on Chinese convoys; Beijing does not provide any precise information about the number of dead and injured. The separatist groups in Balochistan justify their attacks by saying that others are benefiting from the economic deal and the raw materials from their homeland and that they were not even asked when all this was negotiated. The Pakistani state must deploy a massive military contingent to protect the Chinese and construction projects along the so-called New Silk Road, where it cuts through Balochistan province.
What are Iran’s motives for the missile attacks – first on Syria and Erbil, Iraq, then on targets in Pakistan?
The Iranian regime claims these are retaliatory strikes against terrorists. In detail: In Syria against the so-called Islamic State (IS), whose Afghan branch carried out a bomb attack in Iran at the beginning of January that killed more than 90 people; in Erbil against an alleged Israeli spy center, the existence of which is probably a fantasy of Iranian propaganda; and in the Balochistan region of Pakistan against the Sunni terrorist group Jaish ul-Adl, which has repeatedly claimed responsibility for attacks against Iranian security forces.
In fact, none of the rockets could do anything against Iran’s enemies; the dead were civilians. A quote from the Iranian Defense Minister explains the actual meaning of the attacks. “We are a missile power in the world,” said Mohammed-Reza Ashtiani. That’s probably what the regime wanted to show: that it can also reach Syria with its rockets, which is as far away as Israel. However, Tehran shied away from attacking Israel or a US facility in the region. In the Middle East, it targeted targets where it had no fear of backlash.
The Pakistani reaction was again directed against fighters from the Balochistan Liberation Front, albeit on Iranian territory – again not an act of escalation. In fact, according to Tehran, only Pakistani nationals were killed in the military strike.
What do the rocket attacks have to do with the Middle East conflict? Could it be that Iran will intervene there after all?
In Tehran it is said that they will not allow themselves to be provoked by Israel and the USA. In other words, the warmongers are the others. Nevertheless, the mullahs’ regime is sending mixed signals: it is letting its allies such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis set fires, and letting Shiite militias fire on US facilities in Iraq. Tehran wants to show its potential in the region, after all it recently had to allow itself to be humiliated by Israel with actions such as the killing of a general.
The fact that Hezbollah is shelling northern Israel is part of the Iranian reaction. In addition, the regime has been enriching more uranium since the beginning of the Gaza war – with a purity level of 60 percent, as the International Atomic Energy Agency has announced. Theoretically, Iran would not be far from getting the bomb that Pakistan already has.
Apparently, the Iranian leadership is primarily concerned with two things at the moment: showing strength and avoiding a major war. The situation is also difficult for the regime internally. The economic crisis continues, the deal with the USA, under which the mullahs would have received frozen oil revenues, has failed because of the Gaza war. And the expensive support for Hamas and Hezbollah is highly unpopular in the country.