IPCC report on global warming: Critical mark already reached in 2030

The consequences of global warming are becoming ever clearer and the desired climate protection is not enough: That is the conclusion of the new world climate report. Global warming is threatened by 1.5 degrees as early as 2030 – ten years earlier than previously forecast.

In the first part of its new assessment report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of significantly faster global warming than previously assumed. With the current development, the earth will warm up by 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial age around 2030 – and thus ten years earlier than forecast in 2018, according to the report published in Geneva. Global warming is “clearly” caused by humans.

Heavy precipitation episodes are becoming more common

“It is very likely that episodes of heavy precipitation will become more intense and frequent in most regions with further global warming,” the report said.

In addition, a significant rise in sea level is forecast. Even if we succeed in achieving climate neutrality by 2050, the sea level is likely to be up to 62 centimeters higher by the end of the century than in 1995-2014. Climate neutrality means that only as much greenhouse gas is emitted as sinks can absorb.

“In the Arctic, three quarters of the sea ice volume has already melted in summer,” said co-author Dirk Notz from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. “We will probably no longer be able to prevent the Arctic Ocean from being largely ice-free in summer, at least in some years.”

Human impact on the climate “beyond any doubt”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last examined the physical fundamentals in 2013. Since then, uncertainties in the climate models have been reduced significantly. Unlike then, science is now clearly stating: If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced very quickly, the goal of limiting warming to below two degrees above pre-industrial levels will fail. In addition, more climate changes could be directly attributed to human influence, said co-author Veronika Eyring from the University of Bremen.

“There is no doubt that human influence has heated up the atmosphere, ocean and land,” the report said. “Human influence has heated the climate in a way that has not happened for at least 2000 years. (…) In 2019, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was higher than at any other point in time for at least two million years.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also names two developments that are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. On the one hand, there is a rise in sea level of two meters by the end of the century, depending on how the Antarctic ice sheet continues to melt. On the other hand, there is a collapse of the Atlantic overturning current (AMOC), which has already lost momentum. It distributes cold and warm water in the Atlantic and influences the monsoons in Africa and Asia, which are important for billions of people. A collapse of the system, of which the Gulf Stream is a part, would also have repercussions on Europe.