From our special correspondent in Barcelona,
In Barcelona, we are more proud of the eccentricity of Gaudi’s achievements than of the checkerboard plan of Ildefons Cerdà. Between the unreason of the Sagrada Familia, the sculptures of Park Güell or the artist’s house-museums and the routine of the dwellings arranged in eternal squares, we quickly chose. To these incongruities that make up the identity of the city, another grain of madness has recently been added, this time political. Socialist Jaume Collboni won the municipal election, after finishing second votes behind right-wing separatist Xavier Trias. All thanks to an improbable alliance between his socialist party (PSOE), the right-wing party (PP), yet a great “rival” in the elections, and the support of the outgoing mayor, from the radical left.
In the Socialist Party, we do not spit on the conquest of the second city of Spain, a sacred electoral catch. But on the face side, achieving this with an alliance as unnatural as it is eccentric shows the difficulties of the left to convince while the economic crisis has taken all the political light in Spain.
Debacle of the Spanish Socialist Party
In yet another reversal of which the political milieu has the secret, Pedro Sánchez called early general elections on July 23, which were normally to be held at the end of the year. The goal ? Rebound quickly from the disaster of the last weekend in May. The local elections – municipal and regional – saw the rout of the PSOE, in power for five years. Of the ten regions he controlled, at least partially, six veered to the right. With the exception of Barcelona, therefore, most of the big cities – Madrid, Valencia, Palma, Zaragoza, Malaga – are in the hands of the conservatives. If the extent of the debacle is surprising, “the defeat in itself was predictable”, indicates Antoine de Laporte, expert associated with the Jean-Jaurès foundation and specialist in Spanish politics. Because the government of Pedro Sánchez, Prime Minister more than ever in the hot seat, pays a balance sheet deemed insufficient.
From a distance, even we French, renowned for our permanent dissatisfaction, could find the Spaniards very severe. Inflation divided by three in less than a year, an increase in the minimum wage of 8% – and 47% over the last five years -, unemployment at its lowest since 2008, GDP which has finally returned to its level of pre-Covid… Not bad, right? But it is enough to cross the Pyrenees to realize the true nature of failure of Pedro Sánchez and his family. The problem is not so much the lack of results, but that they “are not felt on a daily basis”, continues Antoine de Laporte.
Close to the numbers, far from the heart
To take the pulse and mood of a city, nothing beats the central market. That’s good, in Barcelona, it’s an institution: La Boqueria and its 15,000 stands of a thousand and one foods. So as not to suffocate in the middle of the crowd wandering through the arteries of the Mercadowe always end up finding a chair, the time to share a tapas and an opinion on the “people from above”.
Ander dissects his prawns like Spanish politics, and returns point by point to the PSOE’s balance sheet. Unemployment ? At its lowest since 2008, of course, but still at 13%, and twice the European Union average. “Particularly among young people,” notes this 24-year-old graduate. He has managed to find work in sales – “just for a while, I hope” – but a third of his class are still wandering around looking for a job. The minimum salary ? Raised, of course, but still less than 1,100 euros gross per month, weak to live. The cost of living exactly? Inflation was brought down to 3.2% in May, of course, but it is still drying up the Spanish purses. Food prices are still at a 12% increase over one year.
Measures “either insufficient, or ineffective, or both”
Are you beginning to understand the problem? Antoine de Laporte, a little less vehement than Ander, believes that “the measures put in place are objectively good. But they haven’t had time to infuse and take effect yet. The same goes for the historic agreement on wages – employers and unions agreed in April to a 10% increase in three years. Too late to count in the campaign.
In Spain, we do not always have the same patience as with the work of the Sagrada Familia. If the measures take so long to take effect, it is because they are “either insufficient, or ineffective, or both”, slice Paula, who works at one of the stands of the Boquería. A shift amplified by the self-satisfaction displayed by the government. “Politics are above ground. They congratulated themselves so much on abolishing VAT for essential food products. In principle, it’s good. But what was it for? “, plague the forties. According to the National Institute of Statistics, the measure prevented food prices from exceeding 18% inflation. But they still increased by more than 15% over one year in January, February and March. “Nothing to brag about” therefore, according to the trader.
Lower taxes, the axis of the right to seduce
Anticipating the elections should therefore probably be insufficient to reverse the trend. “The popular party (PP, the Spanish right) is ultra-favorite” to win the bet, predicts Antoine De Laporte. His solution to the Spanish ills? “Lower taxes. A populist measure but which seems effective in the eyes of the population to increase purchasing power, ”argues the expert.
And too bad for the ambivalence of a country where several hundred thousand people were still demonstrating in February to save the public health system. “We are tired of suffocating financially and counting our money halfway through the month,” describes Paula, determined to vote for the right at the end of July. “Besides, they have Alberto Núñez Feijóo…”
Alberto Nuñez Feijóo, hero of Galicia and Spanish providential man?
Spain’s most popular politician, according to the majority of polls, the president of the PP made his mark and his reputation in Galicia – elected president of the regional government four times in a row with an absolute majority. Since Santiago de Compostela, he is expected by a good part of the country as the savior supposed to get Spain out of its multiple crises. In April 2022, he embraced his national destiny by being elected to the presidency of his party, with 98.35% of the vote in favor and the firm intention of becoming Prime Minister.
Antoine de Laporte describes a man “who knew how to give himself the image of a moderate, who would prefer pragmatism to defense bitten values from the right. He is liberal just enough, conservative but not too much, and succeeded with this more consensual side in the return to the fold of the centrist electorate. »
The non-campaign
After the historic slap in the local elections, and on the verge of another decisive election, nothing indicates, in the arteries of Barcelona, that the country knows a political year of such magnitude. No campaign posters, no fiery debate in the bodegas and no emulation so characteristic of Latin countries. The right is so sure of its electoral highway that it has opted for the “most minimalist campaign possible in order to avoid any gaffe”, continues the expert. For the PP, the plan is simple: just watch the left crumble under the weight of the crises that Spain will have gone through during its five-year reign: Covid-19, the war in Ukraine and inflation.
At Barcelona beach, life simply goes on. “We will vote for the PP in July and that’s it,” defends Adrian, more concerned about his beach volleyball match. Here, we think of voting as our next shopping list, evasively. Pasta, ham, cherry tomatoes, vote against the socialist party and don’t forget the liquid for the dishwasher.
But watch out for the wounded beast. Antoine de Laporte knows it: “Pedro Sánchez is never so strong as at the foot of the wall”. The PSOE has not said its last word and has gone into bulldozing mode against the right, criticizing its previous measures and records. Consequence: a “slight tremor in the polls”, notes Antoine de Laporte. Admittedly, the gap is still large in voting intentions, and there is little time left to catch up. But in the city where Barça inflicted the remontada on PSG, we are never completely safe from a turnaround.