No more struggling to find a place to put your towel. Far from the memories of beaches compressed by the flood of tourists, the Mediterranean has never seemed to offer so much space to spread your toes in the sand as during this month of July. An impression validated by the numbers. Far from the post-covid euphoria of the summers of 2020, 2021 and 2022, tourism is decreasing on the southern coasts, from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean. Between – 10 and – 30% attendance in the Pyrénées-Orientales and Hérault, up to – 25% in New Aquitaine, and – 50% in Corsica, according to the various representatives of the Union des Métiers de l’Europe. Hotel Industry (Umih) contacted by 20 minutes. The Ministry of the Economy evokes for its part “certain regions of the south of France experiencing a slight decline” during July, and an increase in tourists further north.
“The purchasing power of the French has suffered inflation head on,” recalls Sandra Hoibian, director of the Research Center for the Study and Observation of Living Conditions (Credoc). Consequence: French people who go less far, for less time, and who aim for cheaper holidays. However, “the south is renowned – often rightly so – for very high prices. And the price remains THE variable for the months and years to come, even on holidays, ”points out Didier Arino, director of the Protourisme cabinet, who invites the sector to calm down a little on prices. The observation is clear for the expert: “All overpriced destinations have been shunned”, a fortiori with the complete opening of foreign borders, far from the Covid years.
Better an expensive south than a rainy north
But for southern professionals, there is no question of thinking that the French really prefer corons to cicadas and Étretat to Argelès-sur-Mer. If the figures are undeniably down compared to 2022, “the level is equivalent to 2019”, reassures Brice Sannac, president of Umih 66. A simple return to normal does he therefore want to believe, far from the idea of a desertification of the south due to the drought/heat wave/shark triptych often mentioned “in the media”. Same precaution with Danièle Küss, former head of the International Tourism Development Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “It is much too early to see a lasting trend there”.
Especially since the potential tourist development of the northern part of France has just taken a big hit with the catastrophic weather in July and its share of rain in the upper part of the country. “What I can tell you is that the phone keeps ringing for August, with many holidaymakers postponing their holidays from north to south,” enthuses Brice Sannac. Didier Arino reminds us: “If holidaymakers fear heat waves or droughts, they hate the rain even more. »
August or the beginning of the reassembly
August, precisely, can it change everything? The month promises to be full of promise, according to the Ministry of the Economy. The hotel sector thus posted booking rates of more than 4 points compared to 2022 over the period from August to September, and reservations in Outdoor Hotels are also up by +4% compared to the year. last in August. “August is always very good. But what is lost is lost, it cannot be made up for, ”tempers Laurent Barthélémy, representative at Umih in New Aquitaine. Nevertheless, like others, the representative wants to believe it: the real problem is not the South, but the month of July.
The latter seems to attract less crowds than before. Or rather, more and more months are giving it strong competition. Only 32% of French people made a tourist trip in July according to the first data from the ministry, three points less than last year. Conversely, 66% leave either in August or September, which is increasingly becoming a third month of summer. Danièle Küss: “The French are not going to leave their favorite holiday regions, but will simply leave at more favorable times to save money and avoid high temperatures. »
September and May, the two pleasures of extended holidays
Laurent Barthélémy: “We have to adapt to the new ways of life of the French. The latter leave more often but for less time, there is a staggering of the holidays over time. In addition to September, the long weekends in May – particularly conducive to holidays this year with an avalanche of holiday Mondays – can explain this decline in July for him. “The French who leave before or after the summer rarely leave during too; the means are not unlimited. »
Didier Arino completes the subject: the July-August duopoly is finite. “The establishments and regions that rely on only two months to make a profit are outdated models. And that’s good. It is more virtuous to have year-round establishments, which sustain jobs and support their employees on site, energizing the entire region. »
For the south, 2023 “will be a good season”
This staggering of vacations is not new – “it started with the 35 hours and the resulting RTT, which made it possible to space out one’s holidays more”, specifies Didier Arino –, and far from being finished. The reasons are many. Climatic – the fear of heat waves in summer – but also demographic, “more and more French people live alone, which exempts them from the July-August constraints for the solar holidays”, specifies Sandra Hoibian, and of course economic, again and again The force of the war. Prices are generally much lower out of summer.
It remains to not overinterpret these new habits, warns Didier Arino: “Seeing record bookings until April, some tourism professionals felt like they were growing wings and increased their prices deliriously”, while a low season successful is not enough to fill an overpriced high season.
The sector is well aware of the new attraction of September and others for holidaymakers, and therefore wants to be confident. Brice Sannac concludes with the assurance of someone who has seen others: “It will be a good season. The Mediterranean has been buried for years, but it remains the most famous tourist destination in the world. There’s nothing to worry about. A month of August when the beaches fill up and there is peace of mind: despite a weak July, the South remains the South.