All the signals are red for Joe Biden. 11 months before the American presidential election on November 5, 2024, the incumbent is showing a sharp decline among young people, who had nevertheless massively supported him in 2020 but now prefer Donald Trump, according to two polls for NBC News and the New York Times. A surprising reversal, which seems notably catalyzed by the war in the Middle East between Hamas and Israel, with young people who largely support the Palestinian cause, as demonstrations on campuses have demonstrated in recent weeks.
18-29 year olds say they prefer Donald Trump to Joe Biden by 49% to 43%, according to a study by Siena College for the Times, a trend reversal of 16 points in six months. At the same time, three out of four young people disapprove of Joe Biden’s management of the conflict in the Middle East, mainly what they perceive as “too much” support for Israel, particularly expressed by a visit to Tel Aviv in mid-October.
The Unpredictable Postman Robert Kennedy
The trend is similar in a poll for NBC News. Donald Trump is ahead of Joe Biden by four points among 18-34 year olds. In 2020, Joe Biden won the youth vote by more than 20 points. In a head-to-head match next November, the two polls give Donald Trump the winner by a narrow margin (46-44%), with a gap which, however, remains within the margin of error.
Even if the Middle East is the main factor that has changed since the summer, Joe Biden also seems to be penalized by particularly strong economic anxiety among young people hit hard by inflation, with a dream of becoming an owner inaccessible with interest rates that flirt with 8%. The Democrat is also weighed down by his age, with three out of four Americans finding him “too old” to be president, or too disconnected from the issues affecting young people.
In an election which acts as a referendum on the mandate of Joe Biden, the vote could be arbitrated by a third man. Several polls place Robert F. Kennedy around 20%. JFK’s nephew, who sometimes descends into conspiracy, particularly on vaccines, is particularly popular among young people who reject Trump and Biden. It remains to be seen from whom he will siphon more votes.