The International Monetary Fund expects the German economy to contract this year. He is even more pessimistic than in spring. Overall, however, the IMF is more optimistic about the global economy.
More bad news for the German economy: First, the ifo business climate fell for the third time in a row. And now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is cutting its economic forecast for Germany this year. According to estimates by the IMF, the German economy will shrink by 0.3 percent this year.
The analysts are now more pessimistic than they were in April: In the spring, he still assumed an economic downturn of 0.1 percent for Germany. In the coming year, however, the German economy should recover more strongly than previously thought: the IMF expects gross domestic product to grow by 1.3 percent in 2024 instead of the previous 1.1 percent.
Germany in recession
Nonetheless, Germany is the worst performer of all major economies this year. And will probably be the only major economy to shrink. That means: The IMF expects a recession for Germany.
On the other hand, he raised this year’s forecast for Spain in particular. It was raised to 2.5 percent from 1.5 percent in April. In Italy, the economy is expected to grow by 1.1 percent instead of the previously expected 0.7 percent.
Even Great Britain is growing
Even in Great Britain things should be better economically. The IMF increased its forecast here to an increase of 0.4 percent. In April, the IMF still assumed a minus of 0.3 percent for the United Kingdom in 2023.
The euro zone is likely to come up with 0.9 percent more economic power after the previously forecast 0.8 percent. The IMF expects an increase of 1.5 percent for Russia (previously 0.7 percent) and 1.8 percent for the USA (previously 1.6 percent).
“It’s too early to celebrate”
However, the IMF assesses the US as mixed overall. The trigger for the raised forecast are increased real incomes and a recovery in car purchases. But the IMF does not anticipate that Americans’ willingness to spend will continue. The money saved during the pandemic has largely been spent and further rate hikes are expected.
However, the global economy is likely to grow more strongly this year than was still expected in April. The experts increased their global economic forecast from 2.8 percent in April to 3.0 percent now. However, high inflation continues to be a concern. “It’s too early to celebrate,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.