The energy agency IEA sees major changes in the global energy sector by 2030. The electricity mix of the future will be significantly “greener” and the share of renewable energies will rise to almost 50 percent.
According to the International Energy Agency IEA, by the end of the decade the world will have a significantly different energy supply situation. “The phenomenal rise of clean energy technologies such as solar, wind, electric cars and heat pumps is reshaping how we power everything from factories and vehicles to home appliances and heating systems,” the IEA said in Paris today as it released this year’s energy outlook.
Biggest CO2 emissions in 2025?
Overall, the share of renewables in the electricity mix should increase from currently around 30 percent to almost 50 percent. Specifically, the IEA predicts that there will be around ten times as many electric cars on the roads by 2030. Heat pumps and other electric heating systems would then be sold more frequently worldwide than fossil fuel boilers.
Photovoltaics can generate more electricity than the entire US power system today. Investments in offshore wind projects alone could be three times higher than in new power plants powered by coal or gas.
The IEA assumes that the highest level of energy-related CO2 emissions will be emitted in 2025. At the end of the decade, fossil fuels would only account for 73 percent of the world’s energy supply – instead of the 80 percent it has had for decades.
Paris climate target is currently not being achieved
But that may not be enough to achieve the 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement, the IEA calculates. In order to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times, the organization proposes to triple the global capacity of renewables.
In addition, improvements in energy efficiency must be made noticeably more quickly; methane emissions from fossils must be reduced by three quarters. New mechanisms are also needed to increase investments in clean energy in poorer countries. Ultimately, fossil fuels are likely to be used less.
The international community is aiming for the 1.5 degree target in order to avoid exceeding dangerous tipping points with irreversible consequences and to avert the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. However, according to experts, the measures planned by states so far are nowhere near ambitious enough. According to the United Nations, the earth is currently heading towards more than 2.5 degrees of warming.
Gas oversupply soon?
The threat of high global warming also poses risks for the energy sector, as the IEA writes. Because the energy systems were built for a colder world with less extreme weather. However, according to the IEA, there could soon be relief on the gas market. Numerous new liquefied natural gas projects from 2025 would significantly increase capacity, reduce prices and ease supply fears. There could even be an oversupply.
Meanwhile, developments in China remain an important influencing factor for the energy sector. The People’s Republic is currently experiencing structural changes, the extent of which is not yet fully known, writes the IEA. The country’s energy demand could reach its peak in the middle of the decade, the demand for fossils and fossil emissions are likely to fall – this would have consequences for the global energy sector.