Global demand for oil will increase more slowly in the coming years, according to the International Energy Agency IEA. She sees demand peaking before 2030.
Global demand for oil will grow at a much slower pace through 2028 than in previous years. This is the result of an analysis by the International Energy Agency IEA. In 2028, the effect of lower demand can finally be observed over the year. “The transition to a clean energy economy is gaining momentum and a peak in global oil demand is on the horizon before the end of this decade,” said IEA Director Fatih Birol.
The aviation sector and the petrochemical industry in particular would contribute to demand increasing by six percent between 2022 and 2028 to 105.7 million barrels of oil per day, according to the IEA’s medium-term oil market report. However, the IEA assumes that, especially in the transport sector, less oil will be needed from 2026 due to more electric vehicles and biofuel.
Net zero target at risk according to IEA
“Oil producers need to pay close attention to the increasing pace of change and make their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition,” Birol said. Upstream investments in oil and gas exploration, exploration and production are expected to reach their highest level since 2015 this year, at $528 billion, according to the IEA.
According to the IEA, such a level of investment would be sufficient to meet demand until 2028. However, the IEA also warned that this oil should not actually be produced in view of the net zero target. Net zero describes the goal of causing only as many greenhouse gas emissions as can be offset. According to the IEA, a faster drop in oil demand is only possible with behavioral changes and additional political steps.