The president of the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region Alain Rousset presented his candidacy for the regional ones. – Mickaël Bosredon / 20 Minutes
- Outgoing president Alain Rousset (PS) is seeking a fifth term in New Aquitaine during the regional elections held on June 20 and 27.
- Bordeaux political scientist Jean Petaux believes he has never been so “challenged”
- With a score of the RN which could exceed the score of the FN in 2015, it may not be able to do without an alliance with the Greens and if the right and the center leave divided, will they remain so?
Will he leave for a ride? Elected since 1998 to the presidency of the Aquitaine region then Nouvelle-Aquitaine (since January 1, 2016), the socialist Alain Rousset is seeking a new mandate. “I find that the game is fairly open and I believe that Rousset has never been as challenged as he is this year”, cautiously believes Jean Petaux, a political scientist from Bordeaux. This Sunday is the first round of regional elections in which seven other candidates participate, some of whom could well give him a hard time.
An alliance with EELV between the two towers?
Two of the three polls carried out since May have the outgoing candidate leading the first round but in the last one, carried out for France 3 and France Bleu by the IPSOS institute, Edwige Diaz, the RN candidate, is ahead of him by two points . “She is so on her heels that she is given in front of certain times,” comments Jean Petaux. He is not as clear-cut as that, even if he has the Greens in the reserve army. Nicolas Thierry, EELV candidate, vice-president for the environment alongside Rousset in recent years, has launched into the battle at the head of an environmentalist list.
Before the first poll in May, Alain Rousset did not hide his exasperation with the Greens who, according to him, easily distance themselves from the balance sheet of the majority to which they belonged and he was determined to go it alone. , until the end. But the polls may have dented his resolve. “He certainly thought that there would be a greater difference compared to the RN,” said Jean Petaux. He is doomed to enter into an alliance because the RN will be too high, I think. “
If Nicolas Thierry, credited with 9 to 11% according to the polls, passes the 10% mark (which allows him to stay in the second round) he will be in a strong position to negotiate with his ex-future president. “Clearly, Rousset will then have to take out the checkbook to buy it in the transfer window of the second round”, comments the political scientist. However, he remains quite optimistic about the possibility of an alliance: “I do not think that Nicolas Thierry will be until the end and will make demands such as that would derail a negotiation between two rounds. “
Can the situation benefit the RN?
Observers fear that the abstention will be even more marked than in 2015. If one relies on the voting intentions in favor of the candidate Edwige Diaz (RN) in the second round, they are higher than the score posted by the FN candidate of 2015 Jacques Colombier. “It is a progression between five and six points it is not nothing in percentage and that is due to the fact of a mediocre participation”, comments the political scientist.
However, the RN’s chances of gaining power are very slim. “It is very unlikely, we are not at all in a situation in Hauts-de-France or Paca, notes Jean Petaux. No alliance should be forged between the two laps and everyone should race in their own lane. “
Which strategy on the right?
“On the right, it is striking to watch that the added scores of Florian (LR) and Darrieussecq (Modem / LREM) make Rousset’s score in the first round, according to the latest poll,” points out Jean Petaux. Officially, there is no alliance project between LR and the Modem / LREM but if that changes, it would be an additional difficulty for the outgoing candidate. “They should stop insulting themselves to make it appear that they are starting to love each other, if they are to get married next week”, loose the political scientist. The alliance between Nicolas Florian (LR) and Thomas Cazenave (LREM) for the municipal elections had not proved to be a profitable strategy for the right.
What places for other political formations?
The other candidates (Clémence Guetté for LFI-NPA, Eddy Puyjalon for Le Mouvement de la ruralité et Résistons and Guillaume Perchet for Lutte Ouvrière) are struggling to cross the 5% mark. “I am surprised at the low score given to Guetté and I tend to think that he is undervalued. But, it is also true that it is difficult for LFI to exist in an election, apart from the presidential election, ”points out Jean Petaux.
For the political scientist, Rousset is therefore not “in an armchair”. The only certainty at this time “the calculators will heat up by Tuesday, before the filing of the lists for the second round”.