Hungary and the Oil Embargo: Taming the Unruly?

For an oil embargo against Russia, the EU needs Hungary’s vote – but that could come at a high price. Hungary’s President Orban has made it clear that punishing Putin should not be at the expense of his people.

A small step has been taken, says Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto, but there will be many “buts” afterwards. “Helpful,” is how the President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, describes her lightning-fast evening visit in Budapest to Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister, who is using strong words to offer defensive resistance to an EU oil embargo on Russia. But she also sends it on, saying that work is still needed.

Orban between the chairs

French President Emmanuel Macron, currently EU Council President, is still on the telephone list in Budapest. While his Europe Minister is spreading that the 27 EU countries could unanimously agree on an oil embargo this week. But how does it all fit together?

The European Union has some problems with Hungary – but Hungary itself has some too. Viktor Orban has made himself more dependent on Russian President Vladimir Putin than others. It supplies almost all the gas that Hungary needs: it supplies the nuclear power plants, including the fuel rods, and two thirds of the oil and petrol in Hungary come from Russia. It’s cheap petrol, the simplest kind currently costs 1.30 euros per liter.

A promise to the Hungarian people

The price of petrol is capped by the state. Orban made that decision even before the parliamentary elections won by his Fidesz party in early April. The prices now, after the election, should remain as stable as possible for the people in Hungary. That’s Orban’s domestic political promise, that’s part of his electoral success, that’s what he has to be measured against.

That makes it difficult, as Foreign Minister Szijjarto coolly explained after the meeting with Commission President von der Leyen: “We have made some progress,” said Szijjarto, “but we still have a lot to discuss before we can change our position. We must not allow that the people of Hungary are paying the price of the war.”

“Like a dropped atomic bomb”

Punish Putin, but not at the expense of the people of Hungary. The argument sounds understandable, but ignores the fact that it was Orban’s good deals with Putin that financed Orban’s social policy, including election gifts for families, pensioners and drivers.

The European Union should now cushion that. Negotiations are being made at a potentially high price for the necessary unanimity. Orban’s voice is needed. As long as the tones from Budapest remain binding in tone, sharp in content. As long as the EU Commission does not offer a solution to these problems, Hungary cannot support the sanctions package, said the Hungarian head of state. “Because in this form it would be like an atomic bomb dropped on the Hungarian economy.”

A legal process is ongoing

Orba’s Foreign Minister Szijjarto is sticking to his prime minister’s well-known campaign rhetoric – the messages are primarily aimed at the Hungarian people: anti-EU, anti-Brussels, not directly against the EU, but finely tuned against the “EU bureaucracy”. Because in the background there is also a threat of EU funds being withdrawn in the medium term due to allegations of corruption.

The EU’s rule of law proceedings against Hungary are ongoing. That also explains the sharp tone, says Patrik Szicherle, an analyst at the independent think tank Political Capital in Budapest: “I think that Orban wants to get the greatest possible concessions from the EU for agreeing to an oil embargo.” Because the core of his policy at the moment is to keep the cost of living low for the population – and that includes the price of petrol.

At the moment, Orban can feel like the strong man in Budapest again, with a brilliant two-thirds majority in parliament and the right to veto EU decisions – as in the case of the oil embargo. That explains the hasty efforts of the prominent interlocutors – von der Leyen and Macron. Von der Leyen came directly from the EU future conference, which wants to overturn the principle of “unanimity” in order to make the EU more capable of acting. Sometime. Orban also knows that this will take time – and uses it.