hr-Hessentrend: CDU and Rhine way ahead, SPD is waiting for the Faeser effect | hessenschau.de

Seven months before the state elections, things are going well for the CDU and its Prime Minister Rhein: In the hr-Hessen trend, both are far ahead, and the SPD is losing ground to the Greens. But even if it stayed that way, the most important question would remain open.

From
Wolfgang Turk

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It’s a little way to October 8th, the day of the Hesse election. The current hr Hesse trend should give the CDU and its Prime Minister Boris Rhein reason to be confident. In the representative survey, both are well ahead of the other parties and top candidates.

The results of the poll for the SPD and its top candidate Nancy Faeser are not very encouraging. They are only in third place behind the Greens and their top candidate Tarek Al-Wazir. And yet, even with this status, a political change is conceivable. It could just be enough for a first-time Hessian traffic light coalition of Greens, SPD and FDP.

Among the topics, the acceptance of refugees is gaining in importance for people. Can Hesse do it? The number of optimists still outweighs this question. But the dissatisfaction with the work of the federal and state governments in refugee policy is great.

1. CDU far ahead, SPD loses, left would be out

The CDU has been in power as the strongest party in Hesse since 1999, and has been in alliance with the Greens for almost ten years. It could stay that way. Compared to the result of the Hesse trend in October, which also corresponded to that of the 2018 state election, the Union is growing strongly.

With 32 percent (+5 percentage points), the CDU is significantly increasing its lead over the Greens as coalition partner. These are stagnating at 22 percent compared to the previous trend in Hesse. However, they stand out from the negative trend of the federal party, which is currently losing popularity as part of the traffic light government, as the latest ARD Germany trend shows. The SPD loses and falls back to third place with 20 percent (-2).

The AfD has to accept a small loss, which ends up at 11 percent (-1). The FDP has to tremble, with 5 percent it just cracks the mark to enter the state parliament, the left remains well below the hurdle with 3 percent.

2. Faeser still has some catching up to do

The state parliament elects the prime minister. If it were the citizens directly, the chances for incumbent Boris Rhein would be by far the best. The CDU politician comes to 32 percent (+2). The Green Vice Prime Minister Al-Wazir surpassed his party’s result with the same increase and a total of 23 percent.

Even after the announcement of her SPD top candidate, Nancy Faeser remains at a noticeable distance with 17 percent and third place. Painful for them: only 44 percent of SPD supporters prefer Faeser to the candidates from the CDU and the Greens. Rhein (71 percent) and Al-Wazir (67 percent) have significantly more support in their own ranks.

Third coalition against the CDU conceivable

Remaining the strongest faction does not have to go hand in hand with retaining government power. If the Hesse trend were the election result, the CDU could mathematically forge two alliances: either strengthened with the Greens as a long-standing coalition partner or with the SPD as an alliance partner.

However, things could also go differently: not with green-red-red, because the left would not be in parliament. But according to the survey, it could be enough for a traffic light under the leadership of the Greens if the FDP does not ultimately fail at the five percent hurdle.

4. Black-green is currently relatively popular

In October, satisfaction with the Hessian state government was at its lowest point since black-green began in early 2019. At 52 percent, this has now improved somewhat.

If you look beyond the national border, the value is even comparatively good. Because unlike at the beginning of the corona crisis, satisfaction with the governments is currently not particularly high. Only in Saxony-Anhalt does the government have a slightly better value at 54 percent and in Baden-Württemberg at 51 percent it is almost as high as in Hesse.

All other countries are far below. The traffic light federal government ranks at the bottom with only 33 percent satisfaction in the ARD Germany trend from March.

5. Very few want a traffic light

If the coalitions of Hesse have their way, it doesn’t look quite as favorable for the incumbent government. Red-Green, which has governed Hesse twice in the past, is slightly ahead with 36 percent in terms of sympathy. With the current balance of power, however, it would be green-red. A CDU/SPD alliance would also be almost on a par with Black-Green (35 percent).

Sobering for the federal government and an aspect for future coalition negotiations in Wiesbaden: According to the Hesse trend, very few people want the traffic light government that is conceivable, at 17 percent.

When it comes to which party should lead the coming state government, the CDU is clearly in the lead, as in the question of the prime minister. But behind them, a glimmer of hope for them, the SPD leaves the Greens behind.

6. Refugee policy more important, energy policy less important

Day care centers, schools, universities: Education is one of the few fields for which the federal states alone are responsible. When it comes to the biggest problems, the topic ranks at the top. However, asylum and immigration policy has become particularly important for the people.

While climate policy is receiving more attention, energy policy is taking a back seat. It was still the hot topic in October. Then fuel prices fell, the gas and electricity price brake came and at the end of winter only one in ten said: This is the most important policy area.

7. Where the SPD has grown

In one area, at least, the opposition SPD has made significant gains compared to the last corresponding survey three years ago. 38 percent (+7) of the Hessians are basically satisfied with their work as a party.

This puts the Social Democrats in second place behind the CDU (42 percent, -2) and overtakes the Greens (36 percent), who have fallen enormously on this point with a minus of 12 percentage points.

Only the left, with 12 percent (-14) satisfied respondents, is hit by an even greater loss of sympathy from those entitled to vote. You have had a violent #MeToo affair in Hesse and have been suffering nationwide for a long time from the dispute about Sahra Wagenknecht and currently about the attitude towards Russia. The FDP (22 percent, -3) is losing fewer satisfied people, the AfD (10 percent) remains stable.

8. Greens lose competence

When it comes to assessing the special competencies of the parties, less has changed. The CDU scores with its core issue of internal security and the FDP with the economy and jobs. Many trust the SPD to do the most when it comes to social justice. What is striking about the Greens: They are losing competence in all areas – despite clear leadership even in their top issue of environmental and climate protection.

Overall, the CDU is believed to be the most capable of solving problems (29 percent). In contrast to the Sunday question and the top candidate, the SPD (20 percent) is in a better position here than the Greens (11 percent).

9. Bad grades in refugee policy

For months, district administrators and mayors of the federal and state governments have been demanding more help with the accommodation, food and integration of refugees from Ukraine and other crisis areas around the world. Hesse’s citizens see it similarly critical. Significantly more than half of citizens (58 percent) think the country needs to do more. More than two-thirds of citizens (68 percent) are dissatisfied with the performance of the federal government.

However, 50 percent of all respondents still think that Hessen will manage to take in refugees. 43 percent disagree. The number of optimists on this topic is very high among the Greens supporters (83 percent), the number of pessimists among the AfD supporters is not surprising (82 percent).