The West is relying on Turkey as a mediator to free the hostages kidnapped by Hamas. Because Turkey has contacts with both sides. Some things are reminiscent of the mediating role in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Hakan Fidan in Egypt, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia: A tour like this through the Middle East is not new for him. Except that cameras follow his every move. It is unusual for him to suddenly find himself at the microphone at press conferences as Turkish Foreign Minister. But you don’t notice it when the 55-year-old calmly says things like the one he’s saying now in Lebanon: “This war can lead to bigger wars, but it can also lead to a historic peace. Our president believes that a historic peace is possible and do what is necessary.”
“Much more diplomatic choice of words”
Five months ago, Fidan was still the man in the background – as Turkish intelligence chief. In his role, he is said to have made a significant contribution to Turkey and Israel becoming closer again in recent years. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan previously called Israel a terrorist state.
Yesterday evening he condemned an attack on a hospital in the Gaza Strip, but did not immediately blame Israel. Political scientist Hakan Günes from Istanbul University was struck by Erdogan’s overall choice of words: “It is now much more diplomatic, less influenced by propaganda and more based on reality.”
Pro-Hamas Demonstrations in Turkey
The reality at home in Turkey also includes pro-Hamas demonstrations by Islamist groups, such as on Tuesday evening in front of the Israeli consulate in Istanbul. Such actions are organized, among others, by an Islamist party from Erdogan’s government alliance. However, Günes does not believe that this can slow down Turkey as a mediator.
“These demonstrations do not mean that these people will not vote for Erdogan again in the next elections. The vast majority of them find Erdogan very charismatic. And they will follow him. In short, Erdogan has this under control, so he never has the public Losing support,” says Günes. There will be no significant opposition to this new policy.
Best connections to Hamas
Berlin looks at the issue from the other side. Turkey is being relied on as a mediator when it comes to the hostages that Hamas kidnapped into the Gaza Strip. Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for the SPD parliamentary group and an expert on Turkey, said during a visit to Istanbul: “Turkey is home to Hamas leaders and therefore has excellent connections to Hamas. And of course we want to use them. Now this mediation is in the truest sense of the word vital.”
Hosting conversations again?
Last weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met her Turkish counterpart Fidan in Cairo. He has arrived on the political stage: “Turkey has been asked by various countries to work for the release of its abducted citizens. That’s why we have started talks, especially with the political wing of Hamas. Our efforts to release especially foreign nationals, of civilians and children continue.”
The Istanbul political scientist Günes sees parallels to Turkey’s role as a mediator in the war against Ukraine. Here she hosted negotiations between the two countries and helped broker the important grain agreement.
“Turkey does not have the capacity to play a comprehensive role as a mediator,” said Günes. “This is about more than just two actors, Iran, for example. So it’s more complex.” But Turkey could again host talks, as it did in the mediation between Ukraine and Russia – at some point. Because at the moment Günes doesn’t see anywhere near a chance for fundamental negotiations beyond the hostages – with whatever mediator.