According to a study, properties with an insufficient energy balance lose value and are less in demand. Higher costs and the forthcoming law on heating exchanges result in enormous price reductions.
Apartment buildings with the weakest energy classes G and H were on average up to 28 percent cheaper than particularly energy-efficient properties in the first quarter. This was the result of an analysis by the real estate specialist Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), which claims to have evaluated 5,000 offer data for this purpose. A year ago the price difference was 21.6 percent.
According to the study, the downward momentum increased again in the last quarter: Compared to the previous quarter, the price discount for properties with the worst energy efficiency increased noticeably by around 3.6 percentage points, starting from 24.5 percent at the time.
Biggest price gap in the country
In detail, according to Jones Lang LaSalle and the “Handelsblatt”, the price discount between the best (A) and the weakest (H) energy class is up to 35 percent on average for apartments and single-family houses in the heart of metropolitan areas. The gap in the densely populated surrounding area was similarly large at 36 percent. However, the differences are particularly serious in independent small and medium-sized towns and in rural areas. According to the data from 45 and 51 percent, there are price differences in the real estate offers.
While the location was previously considered the most decisive feature for the price of a property, the energy balance is becoming increasingly important with rising energy prices and new legislation. According to JLL, lower rental income and poorer tradability can be expected for properties with poorer energy consumption. At the same time, the debate about the planned replacement of the heating system is fueling uncertainty. This is reflected in the demand and thus in the price of the property.
Expensive interest rates and high construction costs are an additional burden
In any case, the increased interest rates had recently put the market under pressure and led to falling prices in many regions. At the same time, sharply increased construction costs had caused higher costs for energy-related renovations. The real estate financier Interhyp is currently showing average mortgage interest rates of 3.9 percent with a fixed interest rate for ten years.
Uncertainty about the heating law persists
The uncertainty on the real estate market is increased by the fact that the federal government made up of the SPD, Greens and FDP has not yet passed the future rules for installing new heating systems. A draft law by Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) stipulates that from 2024 every newly installed heating system should be operated with 65 percent renewable energies.
However, the FDP sees a need for change and has substantiated its concerns with 77 questions to Habeck. Now the answers from his department are available. It is still unclear whether the Bundestag will pass the heat transition law before the summer break.
After the project became known, sales of heat pumps rose rapidly in the first quarter. According to the Federal Association of the German Heating Industry (BDH) and the Federal Association of Heat Pumps (BWP), it increased by 110 percent year-on-year. The number of heating heat pumps increased from 43,500 to 91,500 in the first three months of the year. In addition, there would be 16,500 heat pumps to generate hot water.
“Housing Atlas 2023” – Prices usually rise in the long term
In the long term, however, the real estate market should continue to grow, albeit with very different regional effects. Studies also show this: Postbank’s “Housing Atlas 2023” forecasts real price increases up to 2035 for the seven largest German cities of Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt and Stuttgart as well as for their surrounding areas and other major cities. In Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, Hesse and Schleswig-Holstein, purchase prices are increasing on average across all regions.
According to the housing atlas, the prices for condominiums in almost half of all German regions are likely to fall in real terms and will be at least two percent below the current level by 2035. Price slumps are likely in rural areas of the eastern German states away from the big cities. The prices of many rural regions in Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia, Saxony, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saarland could fall slightly or stagnate.