House election: who voted what in Berlin and why?

Why did the Greens grow strongly in Berlin? What role did SPD top candidate Franziska Giffey play in the result of the House of Representatives election? And why did the CDU slide to a record low? An analysis based on the numbers from infratest dimap.

In Berlin, dissatisfaction dominates. Two thirds consider the city-state administration to be incapable. Only one in three thinks that the capital has developed very positively in recent years. 85 percent have the impression that the gap between rich and poor has recently widened. At the same time, a narrow majority of 51 percent rated the city’s economic situation as poor.

Against this background, it is not surprising that only 38 percent are satisfied with the work of the incumbent red-red-green Senate. In a nationwide comparison, this is the second worst value for a state government in recent years. But by Berlin standards it is a bad value as usual, which hardly differs from those that the previous red-red and red-black senates received since the turn of the millennium.

Greens benefit from government work

The three coalition partners emerge very differently from this election after five years of red-red-green. While the Greens are making big gains, the Social Democrats are stagnating and Die Linke is losing support.

This time, the Greens are by far the strongest force in all age groups between 18 and 59 years of age, the SPD is only in the lead among the over-60s. Compared to the 2016 election, the Greens have made significant gains in all age groups – especially among 25 to 44 year olds. Women are slightly more likely to vote for the party than men. The party gets particularly high proportions of votes from employees, self-employed and voters with a high level of education.

The Greens score in Berlin above all with their program. For 78 percent of their supporters, that was the main reason for their voting decision – the highest value of all parties in the House of Representatives. The party has succeeded in expanding its range of topics in its five years as the ruling party – especially in the areas in which it provided the senators. Among other things, nine percent now trust the party to come up with the best solution in economic policy and job creation – significantly more than five years ago. Nevertheless, the public perception of the Greens is dominated by two topics: in addition to environmental and climate policy, this is transport policy in Berlin.

In view of the strong mobilization of the supporters through the program offer, the weakness of the green top candidate Bettina Jarasch is less significant. Only 23 percent think they are the right candidate for their party. If the people in Berlin had been able to vote for the governing mayor directly, only twelve percent would have voted for Jarasch – 36 percent would have opted for the SPD top candidate Franziska Giffey – 17 percent had preferred Kai Wegner from the CDU.

Senate most popular under SPD leadership

27 percent would like a Senate led by the Greens – but 35 percent would rather have an SPD-led Senate again. On the one hand, the social democrats benefit from the favorable national trend in their results. The SPD in Berlin is – despite the fact that its competence values ​​have decreased many times compared to 2016 – in many areas by all parties most likely to have a good solution. For 27 percent, the SPD is best placed to solve the most important tasks in Berlin. By way of comparison: only 15 percent believe the CDU can do this, the Greens twelve percent and the left ten percent.

Top candidate Franziska Giffey also contributes to the slight gains of the SPD. It achieved the highest level of awareness of all of Berlin’s top candidates. At least 44 percent are satisfied with their work in Berlin – but a modest figure in a national comparison. Compared with the top candidate of the CDU, Kai Wegner, and the Greens, Bettina Jarasch, Giffey is perceived as the most likable and credible. And 39 percent of those who voted for the SPD said they did so primarily because of Giffey. Thus, of all the top candidates, she mobilized her own supporters the most by far.

Several topics of equal importance

When it comes to addressing broad sections of the population with their issues, convincing them and winning them over, all parties struggle with the consequences of the diversity of Berlin’s districts and milieus. There was no prominent topic that shaped this House of Representatives election. One in five stated that environmental and climate issues played the greatest role in their own voting decision. But the subjects of social security (17 percent), economy / work (16 percent) and housing (15 percent) were mentioned with a similar frequency.

The SPD and Die Linke mobilized their supporters primarily with the issues of social security and housing. It is also noticeable that the Left – in contrast to the SPD – was able to maintain or even slightly expand its competence values ​​in the various political fields in the government. But when it comes to the question of which party tries hardest to achieve social equilibrium – one of the important issues in the election campaign – Die Linke is still in first place ahead of the SPD – but with a significantly smaller lead than in 2016. Here, too, can be seen that the political mood in the federal government is having noticeable effects in Berlin.

The fact that Die Linke has to accept slight losses is not primarily due to top candidate Klaus Lederer. After Giffey, he achieved the second highest approval rating and level of awareness of all of Berlin’s top candidates. It is noticeable, however, that the party is noticeably losing support, especially in the over-45 age group and among workers.

CDU loses significantly among younger people

The CDU wanted to recapture the place as the strongest force in the city. Instead, it is only recovering minimally from the record low of 2016 and is now only number three in Berlin for the first time. Above all, the under-45s turned away from the Union – and so did the officials.

Those who opted for the CDU this time did so often because of its economic and labor market policy – a traditional core competence of the Union alongside the fight against crime. The Union is only the first choice for Berliners when it comes to internal security and the economy. However, 58 percent are of the opinion that the CDU has no sense of the concerns of ordinary people.

Central AfD topics less important this time

The AfD has to accept significant losses in Berlin and roughly halved its share of the vote compared to 2016. On the one hand, a core of its electorate is solidifying. This time, 48 percent said they had made their cross out of conviction with the AfD – 22 percentage points more than in the election five years ago. The perception as a protest party is disappearing at the same time.

In Berlin, the party mobilized in three main areas: for 41 percent of AfD voters, immigration policy plays the largest role, for 18 percent it was dealing with Corona and for 15 percent the issue of housing.

Coalitions with FDP participation less popular

The FDP is improving slightly in Berlin. Although 22 percent are satisfied with the work of top candidate Sebastian Czaja – he is among other things ahead of the top candidates from the CDU and the Greens. In addition, almost one in two people in the city welcomes the fact that the Liberals are campaigning for relief for the citizens and a reduction in bureaucracy. But possible three-party coalitions with the participation of the FDP are rated positively by significantly fewer voters than red-green or red-red-green. That affected the election result.

The FDP was able to expand its following among men under 35 years of age and among civil servants. On the other hand, it performed weaker than in 2016, especially among the over-60s and the self-employed in Berlin.