One record, two records, five records… 2023 continues its race to the top of the thermometer. The month of October was the hottest ever recorded in the world, continuing a succession of monthly records started in June, the European observatory announced on Wednesday. Copernicus adds that 2023 will “almost certainly” surpass the 2016 annual record.
These new measures, which result in droughts synonymous with famines, devastating fires or reinforced hurricanes, fuel the warnings of scientists, which will be the background of the 28th United Nations climate conference in Dubai (30 November-12 December). “We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the hottest year on record” and “the feeling of urgently needing to take ambitious climate action in the run-up to COP28 has never been stronger “, said Samantha Burgess, deputy head of Copernicus’ climate change department (C3S), in a statement.
More than 15°C on average
The past month, with an average of 15.38°C on the globe’s surface, exceeds the previous record of October 2019 by 0.4°C, according to Copernicus. The anomaly is “exceptional” for global temperatures. October 2023 is “1.7°C warmer than the average October over the period 1850-1900”, before the effect of humanity’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, adds the observatory.
Since January, the average temperature has been the hottest ever measured over the first ten months of the year: 1.43°C above the climate of the 1850s-1900s, according to the European observatory. More than ever, 2023 is approaching the emblematic limit (+1.5°C) of the Paris Agreement over an entire year, for which COP28 must establish the first official assessment and, if possible, the first corrective measure.
The current climate at +1.2°C on average
The World Meteorological Organization estimated in the spring that this bar would be crossed for the first time in 12 months over the next five years. However, it will be necessary to measure 1.5°C on average over several years to consider the threshold reached from a climatic point of view. The IPCC, which brings together climate experts mandated by the United Nations, predicts that it will be with a 50% chance from the years 2030-2035, taking into account the rate of GHG emissions, mainly from fossil fuels.
The current climate is considered warmer by about 1.2°C compared to 1850-1900. Copernicus measurements go back as far as 1940, but can be compared to the climates of past millennia, established using tree rings or ice cores. These data suggest that current temperatures are likely the warmest in more than 100,000 years.
A life “under siege”
“Life on planet Earth is under siege,” a group of eminent scientists warned at the end of October in an alarming report, noting the “minimal progress” of humans in reducing their CO2 emissions. As in 2016, the current annual heat record, El Nino will add to the effects of climate change in 2023 to cause the thermometer to rise. This cyclical phenomenon over the Pacific generally peaks around Christmas time.
It continues to develop “although the anomalies remain lower than those reached at this time of year” in 1997 and 2015, when El Nino was historically strong, estimates Copernicus. On different continents, in October, drought hit regions of the United States and Mexico. Sea surface temperatures have broken records every month since April, including October with an average of 20.79°C.