After a year 2023 without an election, the French will go to the polls next June for the European elections. But it is far from being the only important meeting of the year 2024. Olympics, reforms, presidential election in sight… 20 minutes draws up its list of political figures who are playing big in 2024.
Jordan Bardella
The head of the National Rally is approaching the European campaign – where he will be the head of his party’s list – in the shoes of the ultra favorite. According to the latest polls, he is close to 30% and is around 10 points ahead of the closest list, that of the Macronists. The election is still far away and when you are the favorite, you have a target on your back. The MEP will have to dodge several attacks from his adversaries: firstly that on the inactivity of the RN elected representatives in the European Parliament, when his adversaries have – and this is rather a novelty for the French – taken up space in the institution European.
Then, that of proximity to Russia, while the war in Ukraine and support for kyiv will undoubtedly be one of the themes of the electoral campaign. Finally, Jordan Bardella will have to manage expectations: if you spend the campaign at 30% in the polls and you finish below 25%, of course it wins, but can undermine the image of a party which seems to walk on water since 2022.
Anne Hidalgo and Valérie Pécresse
The two are not political allies, far from it. At Paris City Hall and at the presidency of the Île-de-France region, they do not have exactly the same skills and they often see them in each other’s faces. But who will sort it out if the Paris Olympic Games go badly? In this somewhat special year, the two elected officials will be on the front line.
On the one hand Anne Hidalgo, who did not want these Games when François Hollande mentioned a Parisian candidacy in 2014, before converting to it. The mayor is criticized for the works, the traffic jams, the dirt in Paris as well as the bad weather. On the other hand, Valérie Pécresse, in charge of the key transport sector, who announced, unlike most major sporting competitions, a very sharp increase in metro ticket prices during the Olympic period. If both want to have a future beyond their mandate, a successful Olympics seems to be a minimum.
Marie Toussaint
Difficult to be the head of the list of environmentalists in 2024 when you come out of 13.5% in the last election, in 2019. The environmentalists themselves recognize this, the political context supports them much less than there was five years. At the time, climate marches mobilized tens of thousands of people – particularly young people – in many cities. This year, on the contrary, environmentalists are facing a backlash due to the unpopularity of certain environmentalist policies among part of the population.
To compensate, Marie Toussaint first wants to bring together green voters, in particular the many who found Jean-Luc Mélenchon more convincing than Yannick Jadot in the 2022 presidential election. To then try to rally populations further from EELV, in rural areas and suburbs. It will be necessary to prove that these two objectives are not contradictory. The issue is key: EELV, soon officially renamed “Les Ecologistes”, has made its independence from the rest of the left in these elections a very strong identity issue. A failure could put this party in a bad position in the left-wing maelstrom ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
Gabriel Attal
He is the prodigal son of the macronie. An express rise since 2017, finally a major ministry since the summer (National Education), and the benevolent eye of the President of the Republic. Gabriel Attal has – according to Macronist criteria in any case – missed nothing since Emmanuel Macron came to power. He has always been in the tone expected by his superiors. They look good on him, the polls too. In Education, he is clearly not seeking to impose a major reform which could cause him to face head-on the unions or a hostile National Assembly.
On the other hand, it is in the very pragmatic daily life of French people. And the day it gets stuck, he will be in the viewfinder. Also, education seems to be at the heart of the “meeting” set by Emmanuel Macron for French people this month of January. A key moment for the relaunch of a second five-year term never really launched where Gabriel Attal should therefore be an essential cog. He has no room for error.
Edward Philippe
At the start of 2024 and for months already, Edouard Philippe has been the putative candidate with the furthest advance for 2027 in the Macronist camp. He is leading in the polls, he is even one of the few to hold his own against Marine Le Pen. His popularity has weakened since his departure from Matignon almost four years ago, but remains solid. His political party Horizons, although small, offers him at least a small organization that, for example, Darmanin or Le Maire do not have.
But for the moment, it’s all on paper. After the European elections in June and the Olympic Games, many people consider that the 2027 presidential election will already be tomorrow. The mayor of Le Havre will then have to start transforming all the promises of recent years. Without going too fast – in September, there will be more than two and a half years before the election – at the risk of wearing out, nor too slowly – and letting ourselves be caught up by competitors who are now behind us. Finding this balance will be Edouard Philippe’s challenge this year.