The forecasts are clear: from this Thursday, the mercury could again approach or cross the 40°C mark in the Gard plains. The records are linked at an alarming rate.
The figures are alarming. Since the creation of the Nîmes-Courbessac weather station in 1921, the 40°C threshold had been crossed three times in 80 years, between 1921 and 2000. It was exceeded eight times in 20 years from 2001 to 2022… including seven times after 2017!
1. Temperature: serial records
So no, the absolute record in the Gard was not beaten at the start of summer 2022. Simply because it had been pulverized on June 28, 2019. Precisely 45.9 ° C then recorded in Gallargues-le-Montueux , historic record on the scale of France.
On the other hand, it is a rain of highest temperatures ever seen for a month of July which have just been recorded in the four corners of the department, mainly on Friday 15 (40.3°C in Nîmes-Courbessac in particular). To the summit of Mont Aigoual, at an altitude of 1567 meters with 28.2°C: unheard of since the start of measurements at the Cévennes observatory… in 1895.
More generally, since April 25, days when temperatures have not been above normal are rare, very rare; in Nîmes, they can literally be counted on the fingers of one hand.
2. Rainfall: dry regime
No surprise: the cumulative rainfall in recent weeks is much lower than normal. The drought committee of the department also met again this Tuesday in the prefecture; new restrictions are expected to be announced this Wednesday.
“If we draw up the balance sheet for a “partial summer”, that is to say from June 1 to July 20, we are at less than a third of the normal precipitation recorded between 1991 and 2020″, indicates Florence Vaysse, referent territorial office of Météo France for Languedoc-Roussillon.
3 The forecasts: not encouraging!
“If it continues like this, if there is no marked cooling in August, this summer of 2022 will be hotter than the summer of 2003, which was extraordinary,” she continues.
No need to beat around the bush: in the short term, things are off to a bad start. For the next fortnight, the models predict “100% chance” that temperatures in the Gard will remain above normal.
The red line and blue line represent normal highs and lows for the period. Until August 2, the temperature forecast remains well above.
“From Thursday, they will rise and remain very high, specifies Florence Vaysse. In the interior plains, we will again approach or cross the 40°C mark.” At the level of the quarter, the scenarios do not however exclude “punctual episodes with rainfall that may be locally significant” or “episodes of relative freshness”. Phew.
And in the longer term? There, it is not at all pleasing. “What was exceptional before becomes possible, notes the territorial referent of Météo France. And what is possible will become normal. Because this is only the beginning. For our Mediterranean regions, which constitute what is called a “ hot spot” of climate change, all scientific models converge towards the same scenario, that of hotter and drier summers.”