Health
Report predicts millions of deaths from climate change
Victims of flooding caused by monsoon rains carry belongings from their flooded house in Pakistan’s Sindh province (archive image). It is estimated that floods alone could cause 8.5 million deaths by 2050. photo
© Pervez Masih/AP/dpa
The economic consequences of climate change have been analyzed many times. But what happens to global health when temperatures rise? The World Economic Forum dares a scenario.
According to a report, climate change threatens to cause several million deaths in the coming decades, as well as serious illnesses and high costs for health systems. The greatest risk comes from flooding. This is the conclusion reached in the report “Consequences of the Climate Change for Global Health” by the World Economic Forum and the consulting firm Oliver Wyman.
The study authors look at six key impacts of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves, tropical storms, wildfires and rising sea levels. It is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) medium scenario for temperature increase by the year 2100. Among other things, it is assumed that the average temperature will rise by 2.7 degrees Celsius.
According to the study, climate change could cause up to 14.5 million deaths worldwide by 2050. Health systems would have to bear an additional cost of $1.1 trillion.
Floods could cause 8.5 million deaths
According to estimates, floods alone could cause 8.5 million deaths by 2050 – not only directly, but also indirectly through crop damage, increased infectious diseases and higher humidity, which can lead to respiratory diseases. The Asia-Pacific region with its heavily populated coastal regions would be particularly affected.
The authors expect the second highest death rate, at 3.2 million deaths, to be caused by droughts – primarily because of the long-term effects of declining water quality and less fertile soils on child mortality. Heat waves could therefore cost around 1.6 million lives by 2050, especially among older people.
Malaria, dengue fever and Zika infections
According to the report, there are also increased illnesses and cases of occupational disability. In warmer temperatures, for example, mosquitoes could spread significantly, so that malaria, dengue fever and Zika infections would also become more common in Europe and the USA. Overall, according to the study, regions in Africa, the Middle East and Asia would be particularly affected by the health consequences of climate change. Unlike the corona pandemic, governments and the global health industry could prepare for this development, the study authors emphasize.
The results of the report will also be discussed at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.