Has France already reached a glass ceiling?



Is the vaccination campaign slowing down? – Olivier MORIN / AFP

  • After weeks of euphoria, vaccination seems to be in severe trouble in France.
  • Between the highest priority people who hardly get vaccinated anymore and the drop in appointments on Doctolib, the country fears having already reached a glass ceiling.
  • Is this fear justified?

It is a moment that the health authorities fear, and from which they know they will not escape. The vaccine “glass ceiling”, this date when the major part of the population volunteering for the coronavirus vaccination will have received its doses and that in fact, the vaccination campaign will slow down enormously for lack of finding a public.

This date, inevitably, will arrive, in a country which still has 20% of people not wishing to be vaccinated (and 13% of people hesitant), according to a Cevipof survey of May 2021. The whole question is to know when it will arrive, or rather, at what stage of the vaccinated population? In countries much more advanced than France in terms of vaccination campaign, such as the United States or Israel, the vaccination ceiling is there and vaccination is now progressing very slowly.

The glass ceiling in priority people

Is this also the case for France? For certain categories of the population, the glass ceiling seems indeed reached. In one month, between May 8 and June 8, only 5.2% of people over 75 years old and 13% of 60-74 year olds were vaccinated for the first time. A rate that is cause for concern, while there remain respectively 19% of over 75 years and 23% of over 60-74 years to be vaccinated. At this rate – and it slows down even more over time – it would take several months to vaccinate this entire population.

Is it only achievable? “We know very well that reaching 100% of the vaccination for a segment of the population is impossible, and we knew that the last fifth would be long and hard to find. In six months, we can say that we have vaccinated 80% of the most fragile population, it is already a good performance, especially in this context ”, positive the doctor and vaccinator Christian Lehmann.

In addition to the potential reluctant to vaccination, other glass ceilings must be pierced: “Some seniors find it very difficult to move around. Perhaps this is the way to proceed – with people who go as far as the vaccine – which has reached its glass ceiling, and it is now time to bring the vaccine to people, ”raises the doctor Franck Clarot.

Fewer and fewer appointments on Doctolib

For the moment, the vaccination campaign has only been able to keep its cruising speed thanks to the gradual opening up to new categories of the population. Thus, young people have taken over and rushed massively for the doses. During the week of the opening to vaccination for all on May 31, 10% of all 18-49 year olds received a first dose, proof of the wait.

But the rise of youth is no longer enough, and even it seems to be floundering a bit. From May 10 to June 10, the number of appointments made for a first dose on Doctolib increased from 350,000 per day to 200,000, while more and more caregivers are complaining about a large number of missed vaccination slots . However, with only 50% of adults vaccinated for the first time, it is far too early to have reached the glass ceiling of the volunteers. So how do you explain this slowdown?

Summer as a new problem

“Vaccination seemed essential during the third confinement to finally get out of the crisis. Today, everything reopens without the majority of people being vaccinated, which suggests that it is not as essential as that, ”notes Franck Clarot.

Above all, summer is here, causing two phenomena. First, a certain recklessness, even more with the deconfinement and the reopening of places of life such as restaurants and museums. “We have only been talking about coronavirus for 18 months, we can understand that people want to think of something else. But suddenly, it is the vaccination which toasts ”, deplores Franck Clarot.

Summer is also vacation. And this is where the “rigor” of French vaccination can prove to be very problematic. It is necessary in France to make its two doses in the same vaccine center, doses now spaced between five and eight weeks according to a derogation from the Minister of Health Olivier Véran. As a result, many French people who go on vacation cannot be there for their second dose and therefore do not take the first. “We must relax this rule of the same vaccination center, pleads Christian Lehmann. Yes, it will require work, administration, verification, but this rule is incompatible with summer vacation ”.

Shorten the space between doses

Olivier Véran’s dispensation does not find favor in his eyes either: “By spacing out the second dose, we make it even less visible and we make it even more complex. “Initially, the interval between the two doses is only 21 days for Pfizer-BioNtech and 28 days for Moderna, then reported to 28 days for both, then to six weeks, and now between 5 and 8 weeks to” make the more flexible vaccination ”in the words of the Minister of Health. “Instead of further extending the interval between doses, we should go back to the initial regimen. 21 and 28 days. This would offer the French more visibility, and faster protection, ”insists Christian Lehmann.

The slowdown in the campaign is therefore perhaps due more to seasonality than to the glass ceiling, and may well accelerate again in the fall. But by then, beware that the virus has not resumed its outbreak, which would leave bitter regrets about this summer dragging its feet to the vaccination centers.



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