analysis
For several parties, the year began with an unexpected number of new entries. The AfD and the Greens in particular benefit from this. But the crisis of representative democracy continues, says party researcher Höhne.
Thousands of people are crowding into large parties. Several of them have been receiving an increasing number of new membership applications in recent weeks. This was apparently triggered by Correctiv’s research into a secret meeting of AfD politicians, right-wing extremists and other people about suspected expulsion plans in Potsdam.
Biggest increase among the Greens and AfD
Above all, two parties are growing: Alliance 90/The Greens and the AfD itself. 2,600 people joined the Greens between the beginning of the year and last Wednesday, as the party’s federal political director, Emily Büning, announced. The party does not want to communicate more recent figures. But the trend continues, according to a party spokeswoman tagesschau.de.
Around 3,300 people have applied to join the AfD so far this year, the party’s press office responded to a request. Around 2,700 of these applications were received after the Correctiv research was published on January 10th.
The Left Party has received around 1,070 applications online since January alone, according to a party spokesman. Around 870 new entries were applied for as of January 10th. The entry numbers for all three parties are significantly higher than in previous years.
When asked, the SPD stated that the number of people joining the party was particularly high in the second half of January. It is assumed that the number of people joining has “tripled compared to an average previous month,” said a spokesman. However, more precise figures could not be given reliably “solely due to the care required” when processing the applications.
The CDU and CSU also report increased interest. According to its press office, the FDP generally does not want to announce any interim results.
“Sociopolitical clearest opposite poles”
For party researcher Benjamin Höhne from the University of Magdeburg, the development comes as no surprise. According to Höhne, the mobilization of parties often increases in election years or around special events.
There are also reasons why people are now primarily drawn to the Greens and the AfD. Both formed “the clearest opposite poles in socio-political terms,” says Höhne. With their program, the Greens represented libertarian-progressive positions, while the AfD represented regressive-authoritarian-conservative demands.
All other parties were somewhere in between. The Greens and AfD thus benefited to a certain extent “from a social escalation”.
In the case of the Greens, the high level of dissatisfaction with the traffic light coalition in the federal government apparently does not change this. You cannot equate survey results with the membership development of parties, says Höhne. Many entries are probably “political commitments for an open Germany”.
For the AfD, the current increase is directly related to the recent reporting about it and the mass demonstrations that followed. Höhne advises general caution when it comes to party information. But if what they say is true, then many entries should express solidarity. “Some see the party as being treated unfairly,” says Höhne. “This is a flip side of the firewall against the far right.”
AfD grew strongly in 2023
The AfD had already grown significantly last year. In Thuringia, the regional association grew by around 300 members to around 1,600, reports MDR. In Brandenburg, the number of members rose by 700 members to almost 2,200, according to the Berlin “Tagesspiegel”. According to its own information, the party grew nationwide by around a third to almost 40,000 members in just one year.
According to various AfD officials, an increasing number of entrepreneurs and people from administrations have been joining the party since the district elections in Sonneberg. In the Thuringian district, the AfD has appointed a district administrator for the first time since June. According to AfD party circles, the party, which is partly right-wing extremist, has become normalized for many.
Number of people in parties declining
Other parties were only able to grow in individual countries in 2023 or their membership numbers stagnated. This also applies to the Greens, which had almost doubled in the previous five years to around 126,500 members. The number of members of the SPD and FDP fell nationwide.
The number of people involved in political parties has been declining for decades. At the end of 2022 it was only 1.17 million for the seven parties represented in the Bundestag. The largest party at the time was the SPD with almost 365,200 members.
New members needed in the election campaign
Many parties are now specifically calling for entries. This is what the SPD politician and Federal Government Commissioner for the East, Carsten Schneider, says in the ARD-Broadcast hard but fair that the current protests are also giving rise to “a form of participation and participation”. The East Germans “fought for democracy in 1989 – and have to defend it in 2024,” Schneider continued.
Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia will elect a new state parliament in September. Local elections are also taking place in many federal states this year. The European elections are taking place nationwide at the beginning of June.
For new members, the elections offer “many opportunities to participate,” says party researcher Höhne. Because during the election campaign, helping hands are needed, for example at information stands, at events or when hanging posters. “Basically, everyone can get involved,” says Höhne.
“Find yourself in democracy”
However, Höhne urges caution when evaluating the current figures. No comprehensive empirical data is yet available. And quite a few new members would turn out to be flashes in the pan once they realized what party commitment meant in practice. The parties also often lack a welcoming culture. “As a party researcher, I am therefore only cautiously optimistic that the trend will continue,” said Höhne.
The crisis of representative democracy is “by no means over” through party membership and mass demonstrations. Höhne recommends expanding participation opportunities outside of the parties. “People must be able to see themselves more in their democracy again.”