Green conspiracy supporter
Anyone who despises Trump and Biden will vote for Robert F. Kennedy
By Roland Peters
April 10, 2024, 7:27 p.m
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No independent presidential candidate has been as popular as Robert F. Kennedy Junior in thirty years. The former environmental activist appeals to both Democrats and Republicans – and could still ultimately help Joe Biden or Donald Trump win.
When the man with the famous last name speaks, things get slightly awkward. Robert F. Kennedy’s voice sounds strained and incomplete, as if it would break away at any moment. “I feel sorry for people who have to listen to me,” says RFK Junior, as he is usually referred to in the US media. “If I could sound better, I would.” Kennedy has spasmodic dysphonia; his vocal cords do more or less what they want. But the Americans aren’t listening. On the contrary.
Kennedy is a US presidential candidate and since his announcement a year ago he has slowly but surely been getting more attention. His independence – and presumably his well-known last name – apparently make him attractive. Followers call him “Bobby.” He could actually give up, third-party candidates have no chance of winning the election in the USA. But he is the most popular independent party in three decades: Kennedy attracts an unusually large number of voters. In some national surveys it has approached the 20 percent mark. On average it is 8.5 percent.
Views not that important
The son of Attorney General and Senator Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated in 1968, and nephew of US President John F. Kennedy, who was shot five years earlier, strikes a special note. The 70-year-old from the family of Democrats has decades of experience as an environmental activist and lawyer, is critical of the elite and rebellious, green and liberal, sometimes flashes to the right, but is not outdated. But RFK fits into the thematic spaces between the sometimes freewheeling Donald Trump and US President Joe Biden.
According to pollsters, Kennedy’s political positions are currently not that important; two characteristics are enough for him: He is neither Biden nor Trump. The majority of Americans do not want another four years with the president, but also do not want his Republican challenger to be in office again. Anyone who rejects or even despises both could choose Kennedy in November.
Vice candidate with good connections to Silicon Valley: Nicole Shanahan.
(Photo: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire)
He also has positions that would be difficult for him to accept among the Democrats at the moment: Kennedy is an opponent of vaccinations and considers public health policy to be wrong because, according to his own statement, he wants to limit the power of pharmaceutical companies. He criticizes military support for Ukraine.
At the same time, he has a program that is likely to make him unelectable for some conservatives: He advocates significantly more environmental protection, wants to increase the national minimum wage to $15, expand public child care, strengthen union rights and limit the lobbying of large corporations in Washington.
He wants to reduce the costs of buying a home – they have almost doubled in the last four years. To provide counter-financing, he would like to reduce military spending. He also advocates for more civil rights, wants to improve data protection, reduce surveillance and end the “drug war”. He wants to make the southern border with Mexico more impermeable to immigrants.
High hurdles, but within sight
If Kennedy manages to get at least 15 percent approval in five national polls, he could even be invited to possible televised debates in September or October. A duel between Biden and Trump would become a triad. The USA has never experienced this before. The second condition for this is that he is allowed to vote in enough states to mathematically win. In many states this requires a vice presidential candidate – at RFK that is the wealthy Californian lawyer Nicole Shanahan.
Kennedy’s positions appeal to the average citizen, while Biden and Trump tend to cater to their own clientele. His voters are almost equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. There are also independent voters. It could be particularly dangerous for Biden and Trump in the contested states, where even the smallest differences can decide between victory and defeat. The “winner takes it all” principle applies to presidential elections in almost all states: no matter how close the victory may be, all the electors in that state go to the winner.
Given his political positions and background, Democrats are primarily concerned that Kennedy’s campaign could ultimately cost Biden the presidency and put Trump in the White House. “We know that the next presidency here in the state will be decided by a few thousand votes,” said the minister responsible for the election in the state of Michigan. “There is absolutely no path for Kennedy to the presidency, and he knows it.”
RFK, on the other hand, emphasizes that his popularity shows that Americans are dissatisfied with the two-party system. “President Biden doesn’t need my help to lose the election,” Kennedy claimed in February. Even if that were true, it could make it more likely.